Rather than cut rates, we expect that the Fed will use targeted measures to ease further signs of stress as they appear.
We are closely monitoring the impact of the recent closure of several U.S. banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, New York.
The recent failures of two regional banks stemmed from different causes than the banking system collapses in 2008–2009.
Recent bank failures carry important implications for the banking industry, economy, and private-equity markets.
Positive economic news in the near term could mean a more hawkish Fed, which would be a headwind for the economy and equity markets.
Growth accelerated in late 2022, and data released so far in 2023 solidify the case that a recession is not imminent.
Emerging markets are in transition as they work through structural shocks left by COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Banks with strong balance sheets and ample capital should be well positioned to take advantage of favorable interest rates.
The latest debate to raise the debt ceiling could go down to the wire and may roil markets.
With the war ongoing, we examine its impact on the economies of Ukraine, Russia, and Europe, as well as implications for commodity markets.
Transitioning away from Russian gas will be a major challenge in 2023, potentially causing an energy crisis next winter.
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