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Current Market Events

The current market environment and its impact on stocks, bonds, and the economy.

One Foot on the Brake and One on the Gas

Rather than cut rates, we expect that the Fed will use targeted measures to ease further signs of stress as they appear.

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U.S. Bank Failures: What Happened and What We're Watching

We are closely monitoring the impact of the recent closure of several U.S. banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, New York.

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U.S. Banks: Should Investors Withdraw Their Concerns?

The recent failures of two regional banks stemmed from different causes than the banking system collapses in 2008–2009.

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Bank Contagion Appears Limited, but Failures Create Key Risks

Recent bank failures carry important implications for the banking industry, economy, and private-equity markets.

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A Recession May Be Delayed, Not Avoided

Positive economic news in the near term could mean a more hawkish Fed, which would be a headwind for the economy and equity markets.

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Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession is Not Imminent

Growth accelerated in late 2022, and data released so far in 2023 solidify the case that a recession is not imminent.

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2023—A Year of Transition for Emerging Markets

Emerging markets are in transition as they work through structural shocks left by COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Navigating Risks and Tailwinds for U.S. Banks

Banks with strong balance sheets and ample capital should be well positioned to take advantage of favorable interest rates.

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What Investors Need to Know About the U.S. Debt Ceiling

The latest debate to raise the debt ceiling could go down to the wire and may roil markets.

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Russia–Ukraine War One Year On

With the war ongoing, we examine its impact on the economies of Ukraine, Russia, and Europe, as well as implications for commodity markets.

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The Energy Crisis Is Only Just Beginning

Transitioning away from Russian gas will be a major challenge in 2023, potentially causing an energy crisis next winter.

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