Mega IPOs and your portfolio: What individual investors should know
June 2026, In the Loop
- Key Insights
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- These initial public offerings (IPOs) could give individual investors access to companies that have largely been available only in private markets. However, initial exposure through index funds may be smaller than the headlines suggest.
- Major new listings often experience short-term volatility, and related index activity can also create temporary market pressure. Well-informed investors may be better positioned to evaluate these moves without reacting to media attention.
- How these companies could affect your portfolio depends on the funds you own, how they gain exposure, and the timing and valuation of any IPOs.
For years, some of the most closely watched technology and innovation companies have been out of reach for many individual investors. That may be starting to change. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are among the most valuable private companies in the world, and their potential move toward public markets raises an important question: What could these IPOs mean for your portfolio?
The answer depends on your goals and how you invest. You may be able to buy shares directly after a company lists. You may gain exposure automatically through an index fund, although that exposure may be modest at first. Or you may have exposure through an actively managed fund that can evaluate these companies before or after they enter public markets. Understanding those paths can help you prepare before the headlines intensify, even if IPO timing changes or listings are delayed.
What’s in the pipeline
Goldman Sachs projects around 100 U.S. IPOs in 2026, generating roughly USD 160 billion in total proceeds.1 Leading that pipeline are three companies whose combined private market valuations could approach USD 3.8 trillion: approximately USD 1.8 trillion for SpaceX and around USD 1 trillion each for OpenAI and Anthropic, based on reported funding valuations.1
Those figures are significant, but they do not mean all of that value will immediately be available to public investors. When companies list, only a portion of shares, known as the free float, is available to buy and sell on the open market. Founders, employees, and early investors typically continue to hold the rest, at least for a specified period after the listing.
For individual investors, free float matters because it helps determine how much of a company can be bought by public investors, how much exposure index funds may initially receive, and how much trading pressure could develop around the IPO.
How interested investors could build exposure
Individual investors may have several realistic paths to owning a stake in these companies after they go public.
Through actively managed funds. Active managers, such as T. Rowe Price, evaluate IPOs through a disciplined research process that considers business fundamentals, valuation, growth prospects, liquidity, risk, and portfolio fit. A company going public does not automatically make it an attractive investment opportunity.
An active manager is not required to wait for index inclusion or buy according to benchmark weight. Investment teams can evaluate whether to invest, when to buy, and how large a position to hold while adhering to risk management and regulatory rules. Some active funds may also be able to invest in private market positions before a company appears on a public exchange. Active managers must also weigh valuation risk, benchmark exposure, liquidity, and overall portfolio risk.
Through index funds. If your portfolio includes funds tracking major benchmarks such as the S&P 500, MSCI, FTSE Russell, Nasdaq, or broader total‑market indices, you may gain exposure automatically if these companies are added to those benchmarks. But index inclusion is not guaranteed, and timing can vary by index provider. Some indexes also have profitability, trading history, free float, or size requirements that can affect whether or when a newly public company is included. Initial exposure is also likely to be modest because index weights are generally based on shares available for public trading, not the company’s full private market valuation.
By buying shares directly. Individual investors generally can buy shares directly only after they begin trading publicly on the secondary market. Before that point, access typically requires an IPO allocation through a participating brokerage firm. T. Rowe Price Brokerage does not participate in IPO allocations, so brokerage clients cannot purchase shares through T. Rowe Price at the IPO offering price.
After public trading begins, clients may purchase shares through a brokerage account, subject to normal trading rules, market conditions, and order-entry requirements. IPO-day trading can be fast-moving, and execution prices may differ from displayed quotes, especially when using market orders. A lockup expiry is the point when certain insiders, such as employees or early investors, are first allowed to sell shares, often 90 to 180 days after listing.
Near-term volatility is worth keeping in perspective
Major IPO events have often been accompanied by short-term market volatility, and this cycle may be similar. As new companies approach public listing or potential index inclusion, some investors may sell existing holdings to raise cash, which can create price pressure around key dates. Scheduled index rebalances, including Russell rebalancing, can add to this pressure when index-tracking funds adjust their holdings to match updated benchmarks. Broad market disruption may be limited, although actual outcomes could differ depending on liquidity, market conditions, and investor behavior.
As an illustrative example, Goldman Sachs estimates that a USD 100 billion float-adjusted company entering the S&P 500 would require approximately USD 30 billion of selling in existing holdings, equal to roughly 8% of average daily trading volume.1 That level of activity is noticeable, but it is more consistent with normal market functioning than broad disruption.
The key dates to watch are the IPO listing, potential index inclusion, the lockup expiry, and quarterly index rebalances. Some short-term traders may position around those events, which can add to price swings. For long-term individual investors, the main takeaway is to understand why volatility may occur without feeling pressured to react to it. Active managers may also use these periods to evaluate whether changing prices create a more attractive risk/reward profile, rather than buying solely because a company enters an index.
The longer-term portfolio question
The more durable question is not only what happens during IPO week. It is how the composition of equity markets could shift over the years ahead.
U.S. technology and growth stocks already make up a large share of global benchmarks. If a wave of large AI companies lists and continues to grow, equity indexes could become more concentrated in a narrower set of U.S. growth and AI-linked businesses.
For individual investors, the primary consideration may be long-term portfolio construction rather than short-term liquidity. For investors who want exposure to that potential, this could be an important development. For investors who are mindful of concentration risk, it may be worth reviewing whether your portfolio’s mix of geographies, sectors, and investment styles still reflects your goals. A more actively managed approach may offer more control over how much of this market shift ends up in your portfolio.
Four questions worth asking now
- Does my fund have exposure? Exposure depends on the specific funds, ETFs, or individual securities you own. Some funds may hold private companies, but not all do, and holdings can change over time.
- Am I interested in direct exposure? If you are considering buying shares directly, think through your approach before the listings occur. IPO pricing, early trading, and lockup expiry windows can each involve different risks and potential return profiles.
- Could near-term volatility affect my plan? Markets may experience pressure around major IPO events and index rebalance dates. For investors with a longer time horizon, awareness and regular portfolio monitoring may be more useful than reacting to media attention or short-term price moves.
- Would a selective approach help me manage exposure? Active managers can make deliberate decisions about when to buy, how much to hold, and which companies are worth owning at a given valuation while adhering to risk management and regulatory rules. That flexibility may appeal to investors who want exposure to innovation but do not want their allocation determined only by benchmark rules.
Review your plan with a financial professional
Questions about exposure to new listings, portfolio concentration, and the right investment vehicle are best considered in the context of your broader investment plan. If your holdings have not been reviewed recently, this may be a useful time to revisit how your portfolio is positioned for long-term goals.
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1 Source: Goldman Sachs, Answers to 7 common client questions on potential impending mega IPOs. April 24, 2026.
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