December 2023 / MULTI-ASSET
How Attractive are U.S. Small-Cap Stocks
From the Field
Transcript
How attractive are U.S. small-cap stocks?
U.S. small caps are very cheap by historical standards. As of November 21, the forward P/E for the S&P 600 Index stood at 12.6, a level well below historical norms for the index. In fact, since the turn of the millennium, we have only seen the S&P 600 dip below 13 twice. Once was in 2008 during the global financial crisis, and the other was in 2011 when sovereign debt concerns weighed heavily on stock market valuations across the globe.
Earnings expectations have stabilized
In addition to low valuations, small-cap stocks offer an improving earnings outlook, as forward earnings estimates have recently stabilized.
Small-cap earnings have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. From January 2020 to May 2020, forward earnings estimates fell by an astonishing 45%. But over the subsequent two years, estimates skyrocketed, cumulatively increasing by 212% as the pandemic shutdown was replaced by a robust reopening of the U.S. economy. However, that period of prosperity was replaced by yet another downturn—one that looked as if it could turn ugly earlier this year.
Fortunately, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than expected in 2023, which has translated into earnings estimates stabilizing in June and July and subsequently showing signs of upward momentum as we enter 2024.
But fundamentals are challenged by higher rates
Unfortunately for small-cap investors, cheap valuations and an improving earnings outlook have recently been overshadowed by concerns about higher interest rates, which pose a notable challenge to many small-cap companies for three primary reasons:
1. Higher leverage. Small-cap companies hold higher debt burdens than large-caps, as illustrated by a comparison of net debt-to-EBITDA ratios. Small-cap net debt is more than 4 times as large as EBITDA, while the large-cap ratio is only 1.42.
2. Thinner margins. While operating margins for small-caps have been gradually increasing over the last 20 years, they stand well below those of large-caps, at 13% versus 21%. This means that as interest costs increase, small-caps have less of a buffer before profit margins turn negative.
Nearer-term maturities. Sixty-four percent of the outstanding debt for small-cap companies matures within the next five years versus only 44% for large-caps. This means that interest costs will increase more quickly for small-caps, as company bonds that were issued when interest rates were at extremely low levels will need to be refinanced at higher rates sooner.
Conclusion
In conclusion, U.S. small-cap stocks offer a compelling combination of attractive valuations and an improving earnings outlook. As a result, our Asset Allocation Committee currently holds an overweight position to U.S. small-cap equities.
However, small-cap companies are likely to prove more sensitive to higher interest rates than large-cap companies. For this reason, we believe it is preferable to invest in this asset class via actively managed portfolios with a higher-quality bias.
Key Insights
- We think U.S. small-cap stocks are attractive, given cheap valuations and an improving earnings outlook.
- However, higher interest rates pose challenges to smaller companies due to higher leverage, thinner margins, and more debt with near-term maturities.
Relative to history, U.S. small-cap stocks are cheap. The S&P 600 Index’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 12.6 as of November 21, 2023. This ratio had only dipped below 13 twice since the turn of the millennium—in 2008, during the global financial crisis, and in 2011, when sovereign debt concerns weighed heavily on global stock valuations (Figure 1).
U.S. small-cap valuations are at historically low levels
(Fig. 1) S&P 600 Forward P/E Ratio
January 1, 2000, through November 21, 2023.
Actual outcomes may differ materially from forward estimates.
Sources: T. Rowe Price analysis using data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. S&P 600 Index. See Additional Disclosures.
In addition to low valuations, an improving earnings outlook may favor small-cap stocks. Despite recession fears, the U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient than expected in 2023. Forward earnings estimates stabilized in June and July, and there are signs of upward momentum as we enter 2024.
However, concerns about higher interest rates pose a notable challenge for U.S. small-cap stocks. A comparison of net debt[1] to EBITDA[2] ratios shows that small-cap companies typically have higher debt burdens than large-cap companies (Figure 2). Operating margins for small companies also stand well below those of large companies. This means that as interest costs increase, small-cap companies have less of a buffer before profit margins turn negative.
Figure 1: U.S. small-cap valuations are at historically low levels
S&P 600 Index forward P/E ratio
January 1, 2000, through November 21, 2023.
Actual outcomes may differ materially from forward estimates.
Sources: T. Rowe Price analysis using data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. S&P 600 Index. See Additional Disclosures.
Further, data also show that smaller companies have more debt that will mature within the next five years than large companies.[3] Interest costs for small-cap companies are, therefore, likely to increase more quickly, as company bonds will need to be refinanced at higher rates sooner.
Overall, U.S. small-cap stocks offer attractive valuations and an improving earnings outlook, but they are also more sensitive to higher interest rates than large-cap companies. As a result, our Asset Allocation Committee currently holds an overweight position to U.S. small-cap equities. We believe it is prudent to invest in this asset class via actively managed portfolios with a higher quality bias.
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December 2023 / U.S. EQUITIES
Tim Murray is a capital market strategist in the Multi-Asset Division. Tim is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
