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Market Insights

2024 Global Market Outlook

Capital Market Assumptions
Five-Year Perspective
2023

February 2024 / WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

Global Markets Weekly Update

Global Markets Weekly Update

Global Markets Weekly Update

Good inflation news in Europe; negative surprises in U.S.

January 2024 / MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Monthly Update

Global Markets Monthly Update

Global Markets Monthly Update

For December 2023

December 2023 / EQUITY

Where We See Opportunities in Asia ex-Japan Equities

Where We See Opportunities in Asia ex-Japan Equities

Where We See Opportunities in Asia ex-Japan...

Navigating diverse market drivers is key.

By Anh Lu

Anh Lu Portfolio Manager

December 2023 / MARKETS & ECONOMY

Europe Must Tread a Fine Line to Avoid Stagnation

Europe Must Tread a Fine Line to Avoid Stagnation

Europe Must Tread a Fine Line to Avoid Stagnation

Weak macro outlook must be balanced with need to tackle inflation.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

December 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

How Attractive are U.S. Small-Cap Stocks

How Attractive are U.S. Small-Cap Stocks

How Attractive are U.S. Small-Cap Stocks

From the Field

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

January 2024 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Our experts share perspective on market themes and regional trends, plus insights...

January 2024 / QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Quarterly Update

Global Markets Quarterly Update

Global Markets Quarterly Update

For Fourth Quarter 2023

November 2023 / VIDEO

Are U.S. Stocks Worth the Price?

Are U.S. Stocks Worth the Price?

Are U.S. Stocks Worth the Price?

The Magnificent 7 have distorted U.S. equity valuations.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

November 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Integrating ESG Preferences in Asset Allocation

Integrating ESG Preferences in Asset Allocation

Integrating ESG Preferences in Asset Allocation

Optimizing with an added ESG risk constraint.

By Wenting Shen & Nathan Wang

By Wenting Shen & Nathan Wang

October 2023 / VIDEO

Two Key Risks Facing Consumer Spending, the Engine of the U.S. Economy

Two Key Risks Facing Consumer Spending, the Engine of the U.S. Economy

Two Key Risks Facing Consumer Spending, the...

Consumer fundamentals seem to be weakening from a strong position.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

October 2023 / ASSET ALLOCATION

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

An uptick in some prices could mean higher rates for longer.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

October 2023 / VIDEO

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

Central Banks Should Be Wary of Quantitative Overtightening

Central Banks Should Be Wary of Quantitative Overtightening

Central Banks Should Be Wary of Quantitative...

They may not fully understand its impact.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

September 2023 / STRATEGIC INVESTING

Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance Our Investment Processes

Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance Our Investment Processes

Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance...

Driving deliberate innovation with AI tools to boost human decision‑making

By Robert W. Sharps

Robert W. Sharps Chief Executive Officer and President

August 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Inflation Globalization

Inflation Globalization

Inflation Globalization

Understanding the drivers of domestic and global inflation.

By Multiple Authors

By Multiple Authors

July 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Equities Are Back in Favor

U.S. Equities Are Back in Favor

U.S. Equities Are Back in Favor

Earnings outlook for U.S. companies is trending positive.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

June 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Debt Deal Does More Than Avoid Default

U.S. Debt Deal Does More Than Avoid Default

U.S. Debt Deal Does More Than Avoid Default

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

June 2023 / CHINA EQUITIES

China Midyear Market Outlook

China Midyear Market Outlook

China Midyear Market Outlook

A more broad-based recovery after initial reopening, though some bumpiness is expected.

By Jacqueline Liu

Jacqueline Liu Portfolio Manager

June 2023 / MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the Signal Through the Noise

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the Signal Through the Noise

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the...

Bearish indicators could be flashing misleading signs

By Arif Husain, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

By Arif Husain, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

June 2023 / VIDEO

Fintechs: Evaluating the Threat to Emerging Markets Banks

Fintechs: Evaluating the Threat to Emerging Markets Banks

Fintechs: Evaluating the Threat to Emerging...

By Mariel Abreu

Mariel Abreu Credit Analyst

June 2023 / VIDEO

Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Environment

Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Environment

Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Environment

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

May 2023 / VIDEO

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China Relations

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China Relations

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China...

Competition between these powers creates risk and opportunity.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Washington Associate Analyst
U.S. Equity Division

May 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Labor Market Strength May Be Tenuous

U.S. Labor Market Strength May Be Tenuous

U.S. Labor Market Strength May Be Tenuous

Managing a global equity strategy during the coronavirus crisis.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

May 2023 / LIQUIDITY

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank Funding

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank Funding

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank...

But cash squeeze may force the Fed to halt quantitative tightening.

By Adam Marden & Pranay Subedi

By Adam Marden & Pranay Subedi

April 2023 / VIDEO

A More Turbulent Path for the Fed

A More Turbulent Path for the Fed

A More Turbulent Path for the Fed

Calming banking jitters amid high inflation and slowing growth.

By Christina Noonan

Christina Noonan Associate Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Division

February 2024 / MULTI-ASSET

Forecasting European Equity Earnings with Macro Factors

Forecasting European Equity Earnings with Macro Factors

Forecasting European Equity Earnings with...

A strong relationship exists between equity earnings, inflation, and unemployment.

January 2024 / MULTI-ASSET

Macro‑Implied Earnings

Macro‑Implied Earnings

Macro‑Implied Earnings

A simple model can explain how earnings will respond to changes in the health of...

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

February 2024 / FIXED INCOME

Corporate Bonds—A Compelling Long-Term Income Profile

Corporate Bonds—A Compelling Long-Term Income Profile

Corporate Bonds—A Compelling Long-Term Income...

Fundamental research is imperative in credit markets as headwinds rise.

By Saurabh Sud

Saurabh Sud Portfolio Manager

January 2024 / MULTI-ASSET

Is the Market Broadening?

Is the Market Broadening?

Is the Market Broadening?

Will small-caps eventually “show up” for investors?

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

January 2024 / MARKET OUTLOOK

Putting cash to work in 2024

Putting cash to work in 2024

Putting cash to work in 2024

We explore three possible scenarios as U.S. interest rates peak

By Christina Noonan, Som Priestley & Douglas Spratley

By Christina Noonan, Som Priestley & Douglas Spratley

January 2024 / EQUITY

Investing in China Means Embracing Discomfort

Investing in China Means Embracing Discomfort

Investing in China Means Embracing Discomfort

Sentiment toward China is weak, but opportunities exist for investors who seek them.

By Justin Thomson

Justin Thomson Head of International Equity and CIO

January 2024 / MULTI-ASSET

Three Important Insights From 2023

Three Important Insights From 2023

Three Important Insights From 2023

From the Field

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

December 2023 / GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 Global Market Outlook

2024 Global Market Outlook

Tectonic shifts create new opportunities

By Arif Husain, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

By Arif Husain, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

December 2023 / GLOBAL EQUITIES

China: Time To Revisit An Unloved Asset Class

China: Time To Revisit An Unloved Asset Class

China: Time To Revisit An Unloved Asset Class

An economy that is in transition.

By Wenli Zheng

Wenli Zheng Portfolio Manager

December 2023 / MARKETS & ECONOMY

Economic Momentum and Growth Supportive Policies Underpin Japan’s Renaissa...

Economic Momentum and Growth Supportive Policies Underpin Japan’s Renaissance

Economic Momentum and Growth Supportive Policies...

The signs point to a positive outlook for Japan in 2024.

By Aadish Kumar

Aadish Kumar International Economist

December 2023 / VIDEO

P&I Webinar – Is Your Fixed Income Allocation Positioned for Yesterday,...

P&I Webinar – Is Your Fixed Income Allocation Positioned for Yesterday,...

P&I Webinar – Is Your Fixed Income Allocation...

By Saurabh Sud, Lowell Yura & Christina Kellar

By Saurabh Sud, Lowell Yura & Christina Kellar

November 2023 / VIDEO

Asset Allocation Viewpoints Webcast - Mixed Signal: Soft Landing or Recess...

Asset Allocation Viewpoints Webcast - Mixed Signal: Soft Landing or Recession?

Asset Allocation Viewpoints Webcast - Mixed...

October 2023 / U.S. ECONOMY

The Resilient Engine of the U.S. Economy Could Stall

The Resilient Engine of the U.S. Economy Could Stall

The Resilient Engine of the U.S. Economy...

Consumer fundamentals seem to be weakening from a strong position.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

October 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

Global Spotlight on Efforts to Avoid Escalation of Israel-Gaza Conflict

Global Spotlight on Efforts to Avoid Escalation of Israel-Gaza Conflict

Global Spotlight on Efforts to Avoid Escalation...

Energy markets face limited impact, while regional bond markets remain sensitive...

By Peter Botoucharov, Razan Nasser & Elliot Shue

By Peter Botoucharov, Razan Nasser & Elliot Shue

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on Oil Prices

The Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on Oil Prices

The Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on Oil...

Amid near-term pressures, secular drivers will likely remain intact.

By Shinwoo Kim & Jacqueline H. Fortner

By Shinwoo Kim & Jacqueline H. Fortner

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

Why the “High for Longer” Narrative Is Flawed

Why the “High for Longer” Narrative Is Flawed

Why the “High for Longer” Narrative Is Flawed

Central banks will likely ease sooner than expected.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

September 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

Regional Banks Stabilize, Yet Pressures Remain

Regional Banks Stabilize, Yet Pressures Remain

Regional Banks Stabilize, Yet Pressures Remain

Regulatory changes will do little to solve higher cost of funding.

By Matt J. Snowling & Pranay Subedi

By Matt J. Snowling & Pranay Subedi

September 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Treasury Yields, Up, Up, and Away…?

U.S. Treasury Yields, Up, Up, and Away…?

U.S. Treasury Yields, Up, Up, and Away…?

By Christina Noonan

Christina Noonan Associate Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Division

August 2023 / VIDEO

Leaning Into Real Assets

Leaning Into Real Assets

Leaning Into Real Assets

Our Asset Allocation Committee recently added to real assets equities, given attractive...

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

July 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Fed Signals More Rate Increases Amid a Resilient Economy

The Fed Signals More Rate Increases Amid a Resilient Economy

The Fed Signals More Rate Increases Amid...

Sticky inflation and further rate hikes reduce soft landing odds.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

June 2023 / ECONOMICS

A Garden Variety Recession Is Coming

A Garden Variety Recession Is Coming

A Garden Variety Recession Is Coming

It will be very different than 2008 and 2020.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

June 2023 / ECONOMICS

The World Faces a Highly Variable Inflation Outlook

The World Faces a Highly Variable Inflation Outlook

The World Faces a Highly Variable Inflation...

The U.S. and UK face a tougher challenge than the Nordics and eurozone.

By Tomasz Wieladek & Aadish Kumar

By Tomasz Wieladek & Aadish Kumar

June 2023 / GLOBAL EQUITIES

The Japan Story Is Gathering Momentum

The Japan Story Is Gathering Momentum

The Japan Story Is Gathering Momentum

Macro risks have risen, but the outlook for Japan appears bright.

By Archibald Ciganer

Archibald Ciganer Regional Portfolio Manager

June 2023 / U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY

U.S. Debt Deal May Mark New Era in Federal Spending

U.S. Debt Deal May Mark New Era in Federal Spending

U.S. Debt Deal May Mark New Era in Federal...

Here's what it could mean for the economy, industry, and policy.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Washington Associate Analyst, U.S. Equity Division

May 2023 / VIDEO

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on Guard

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on Guard

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on...

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

May 2023 / FIXED INCOME

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency Debt

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency Debt

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency...

A potentially rewarding asset class.

By Nathan Wang & Wenting Shen

By Nathan Wang & Wenting Shen

May 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

Implications of the Debt Ceiling Showdown for Investors

Implications of the Debt Ceiling Showdown for Investors

Implications of the Debt Ceiling Showdown...

As the “x-date” approaches, our portfolio managers and experts are closely monitoring...

April 2023 / MULTI-ASSET INSIGHTS

Multi-Asset Collaboration and Due Diligence

Multi-Asset Collaboration and Due Diligence

Multi-Asset Collaboration and Due Diligence

How we actively monitor and fortify our building blocks.

By Kim DeDominicis, Amy Seman & Toby M. Thompson

By Kim DeDominicis, Amy Seman & Toby M. Thompson

April 2023 / ECONOMICS

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much Longer

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much Longer

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much...

Market events could prompt a softening of policy this summer.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

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