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Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

July 2025

Outlook
  • We remain near neutral on risk assets balancing the impacts of trade as well as fiscal and monetary policy support on global growth.
  • U.S. growth expectations are modest with tariff policy a headwind, while the consumer remains resilient and a potential lift from fiscal is expected. Meanwhile the Fed remains on hold with a cautious eye on inflation.
  • Economies outside the U.S. facing slower growth, but with more monetary policy flexibility given better progress on inflation. Increased fiscal policy spending also underpinning growth in some regions, including Europe and China.
  • Key risks to global markets include the impacts of global trade tensions, threat of higher inflation, central bank missteps, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This month our Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints report highlights a balanced approach to risk assets, given the effects of trade, fiscal, and monetary policies on global growth. U.S. growth is modest, with tariff policies posing challenges, yet consumer resilience and potential fiscal lifts are noted. Outside the U.S., growth is slower but benefits from better inflation progress and increased fiscal spending. Key global market risks include trade tensions, potential inflation, central bank errors, and geopolitical issues. Tactical adjustments in portfolios reflect these views, with an emphasis on underweighting bonds and overweighting cash and high-yield assets.


 

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice  of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe  Price investment products and services. Performance data quoted represents past performance which is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types, advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

Risks: All investments are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Fixed-income securities are subject to credit risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and interest- rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

USA: T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. © 2025 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, the Bighorn Sheep design, and related indicators (https://www.troweprice.com/en/intellectual-property) are trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

202507-4643049

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