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Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Read our committee’s tactical views, positioning, risks, and opportunities across global assets.

March 2026

Outlook

Ongoing geopolitical conflict and a more pronounced energy supply shock leading to higher inflation and rates could challenge risk assets, with valuations remaining somewhat elevated.
While recent developments in the Middle East pose risks to inflation and growth, earnings momentum and economic growth still remain favorable, underpinned by accommodative fiscal policies across many regions.
U.S. economic growth continues to show resilience driven by AI-driven capex spending, consumer spending and supportive fiscal policy. Although, weakness in the labor market warrants monitoring.
Markets outside the U.S. continue to benefit from firmer domestic demand and policy, particularly in Europe and Japan.
Key risks to global markets include escalating geopolitical tensions, a resurgence in inflation, reliance on AI-driven growth, further deterioration in labor markets, and a widening of liquidity concerns within private credit.

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the potential for a more pronounced energy supply shock are contributing to higher inflation and interest rates, posing challenges for risk assets at a time when valuations remain relatively elevated. We maintain a neutral stance on equities, balancing solid fundamentals—such as fiscal support and the delayed effects of Federal Reserve rate cuts—against concerns about expensive valuations and persistent geopolitical tensions. This month's key themes include the persistent flow of negative headlines impacting market sentiment and a noticeable rotation toward asset-heavy sectors, while more defensive technology sectors have seen a shift in investor preference.

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202603-5288548

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