September 2023 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints
Our experts share perspective on market themes and regional trends, plus insights into current portfolio positioning.
Market Perspective
As of 31 August 2023
- Global economic growth was mixed across regions, with inflationary pressures and central bank policies starting to diverge.
- U.S. and Japanese economies are proving more resilient, although the U.S. is seeing evidence of cooling amid recent jobs data. While weakness is seen across Europe as they work through a mild recession and elevated, albeit softening inflation, Chinese growth is mixed as recent slowing is being met with stimulus measures amid growing concerns surrounding its property sector.
- While global central bank tightening is likely peaking, the paths and rates of disinflation vary across regions, which is likely to lead to divergence in policy ahead.
- Key risks to global markets include a deeper than expected decline in growth, central bank missteps, reacceleration in inflation, trajectory of Chinese growth, and geopolitical tensions.
Portfolio Positioning
As of 31 August 2023
- We maintain a balanced view on risk with a modest underweight to equities as valuations remain elevated amid a less dire outlook for growth and expectations for peaking central bank policy.
- We added to our overweight position in real assets-related equities, sourcing from emerging market and small-cap equities, as a hedge against inflation settling in above central banks’ targets, as well as the potential for higher commodity prices over the intermediate-term reflecting reduced capex and moderating productivity trends.
- Within fixed income, we remain underweight bonds in favor of cash as cash offers attractive yields and liquidity should market opportunities evolve. We also have a modest overweight to long-term U.S. treasuries as ballast to risk assets.
- Within fixed income yield-seeking sectors, we remain overweight high yield, floating rate loans, and emerging market bonds on still attractive absolute yield levels and reasonably supportive fundamentals.
Market Themes
As of 31 August 2023
A Jolt of Confidence
The most recent JOLTS1 data, a measure of labor demand, showed job openings have come down significantly and are now the lowest since March 2021, a welcomed sign for the Fed that excess demand in the labor market may finally be starting to cool. The data also showed that fewer workers were quitting their jobs and hiring broadly moderated, both moving in favorable directions for balancing the labor market and easing wage growth concerns. Layoffs were relatively flat, meaning that the labor market has cooled by removing some of the froth in demand without increasing unemployment, helping support the narrative of a soft landing. However, while wage growth data has showed evidence of slowing it is still elevated, the number of job openings per unemployed person is still high, and the labor market remains tight by historical measures with the unemployment rate at just 3.8%. So, while the recent softening jobs data has provided a jolt of confidence that the Fed may navigate a soft landing, we still have a ways to go to align the jobs market and wages with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Job Openings Less Unemployed Workers2
As of 31 July 2023
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
1 Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey.
2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployed is defined as looking for full-time work.
Diverging Markets?
After a strong start to the year surrounding optimism around China’s reopening, recent emerging markets’ performance has disappointed. Although there have been some bright spots across EM, as some Latin American countries have successfully brought down inflation, Mexico seeing the benefits from nearshoring, and India’s growth surprising to the upside, they have largely been overshadowed by doubts surrounding China’s growth trajectory. Concerns surrounding China’s troubled property sector have re-emerged and weighed heavily on household confidence and willingness to spend. This comes at the same time as structurally rising unemployment weighs against Chinese policymakers’ multi-year efforts to move the economy away from an export-driven economy into a more sustainable, consumption-driven and domestically focused economy. In response to today’s issues, policymakers have been targeted in deploying stimulus measures such as liquidity support for property developers, relaxing some housing policies, and incremental cuts to its key policy rate, as a conscious effort to not reinflate a bubble. So, while there are pockets of opportunity in EMs, it’s likely that the broader group’s outlook will largely depend on China’s ability to restore confidence domestically and globally.
China Underperforming Other Emerging Market Countries3
As of 31 August 2023
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
3 Source: Bloomberg L.P. Country returns are represented by the following MSCI Indices: MSCI Mexico Index, MSCI India Index and MSCI China Index. Please see Additional Disclosures for more information about this MSCI information.
Regional Backdrop
As of 31 August 2023
| Views | Positives | Negatives | |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | N |
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| Canada | N |
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| Europe | U |
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| United Kingdom | N |
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| Japan | O |
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| Australia | N |
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| Emerging Markets | O |
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O = Overweight
N = Neutral
U = Underweight
Views are informed by the Asset Allocation Committee and Regional Investment Committees (United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, Japan and Asia) and reflect the equity market.
Asset Allocation Committee Positioning
As of 31 August 2023
1 For pairwise decisions in style & market capitalization, positioning within boxes represent positioning in the first mentioned asset class relative to the second asset class.
The asset classes across the equity and fixed income markets shown are represented in our Multi-Asset portfolios. Certain style & market capitalization asset classes are represented as pairwise decisions as part of our tactical asset allocation framework.
Portfolio Implementation
As of 31 August 2023
1 U.S. small-cap includes both small- and mid-cap allocations.
Source: T. Rowe Price. Unless otherwise stated, all market data are sourced from FactSet. Copyright 2023 FactSet. All Rights Reserved.
These are subject to change without further notice. Figures may not total due to rounding.
Neutral equity portfolio weights representative of a U.S.-biased portfolio with a 70% U.S. and 30% international allocation; includes allocation to real assets equities. Core fixed income allocation representative of U.S.-biased portfolio with 55% allocation to U.S. investment grade.
Source: MSCI. MSCI and its affiliates and third party sources and providers (collectively, “MSCI”) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. Historical MSCI data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.
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