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2023 Midyear Market Outlook

Finding the Signal Through the Noise

Capital Market Assumptions
Five-Year Perspective
2023

November 2023 / WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

Global Markets Weekly Update

Central banks signal rates to remain steady

November 2023 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Our experts share perspective on market themes and regional trends, plus insights...

October 2023 / U.S. ECONOMY

The Resilient Engine of the U.S. Economy Could Stall

The Resilient Engine of the U.S. Economy...

Consumer fundamentals seem to be weakening from a strong position.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

October 2023 / VIDEO

Two Key Risks Facing Consumer Spending, the Engine of the U.S. Economy

Two Key Risks Facing Consumer Spending, the...

Consumer fundamentals seem to be weakening from a strong position.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

Central Banks Should Be Wary of Quantitative Overtightening

Central Banks Should Be Wary of Quantitative...

They may not fully understand its impact.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

September 2023 / MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Monthly Update

For August 2023

September 2023 / QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Quarterly Update

For Second Quarter 2023

August 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Inflation Globalization

Understanding the drivers of domestic and global inflation.

By Multiple Authors

July 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Fed Signals More Rate Increases Amid a Resilient Economy

The Fed Signals More Rate Increases Amid...

Sticky inflation and further rate hikes reduce soft landing odds.

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

June 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Debt Deal Does More Than Avoid Default

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

June 2023 / CHINA EQUITIES

China Midyear Market Outlook

A more broad-based recovery after initial reopening, though some bumpiness is expected.

By Jacqueline Liu

Jacqueline Liu Equity Research Analyst

June 2023 / GLOBAL EQUITIES

The Japan Story Is Gathering Momentum

Macro risks have risen, but the outlook for Japan appears bright.

By Archibald Ciganer

Archibald Ciganer Regional Portfolio Manager

June 2023 / MIDYEAR MARKET OUTLOOK

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the Signal Through the Noise

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the...

Bearish indicators could be flashing misleading signs

By Arif Husain, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

June 2023 / VIDEO

Asset Allocation in an Uncertain Environment

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

May 2023 / LIQUIDITY

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank Funding

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank...

But cash squeeze may force the Fed to halt quantitative tightening.

By Adam Marden & Pranay Subedi

May 2023 / VIDEO

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China Relations

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China...

Competition between these powers creates risk and opportunity.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Washington Associate Analyst
U.S. Equity Division

April 2023 / MULTI-ASSET INSIGHTS

Multi-Asset Collaboration and Due Diligence

How we actively monitor and fortify our building blocks.

By Kim DeDominicis, Amy Seman & Toby M. Thompson

April 2023 / ECONOMICS

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much Longer

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much...

Market events could prompt a softening of policy this summer.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

One Foot on the Brake and One on the Gas

My views on the economic and market implications of the banking turmoil.

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

U.S. Bank Failures: What Happened and What We're Watching

U.S. Bank Failures: What Happened and What...

March 2023 / FIXED INCOME

Cutting a Path

T. Rowe Price’s Saurabh Sud goes where the credit opportunities take him.

By Saurabh Sud

Saurabh Sud Portfolio Manager

March 2023 / FINANCIAL SERVICES

Bank Contagion Appears Limited, but Failures Create Key Risks

Bank Contagion Appears Limited, but Failures...

Heightened liquidity constraints and disruption require deft investing touch.

By Matt J. Snowling & David M. DiPietro

February 2023 / VIDEO

A Long-Awaited Reversal

Near-term tailwinds could favor international markets.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

February 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Mild Winter Will Delay Europe’s Recession, Not Prevent It

The Mild Winter Will Delay Europe’s Recession,...

Other risks will likely weigh on the Continent later this year.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

February 2023 / VIDEO

What Investors Need to Know About the U.S. Debt Ceiling

What Investors Need to Know About the U.S....

The impasse over raising the debt ceiling may roil markets.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

January 2023 / VIDEO

Five Key Insights From 2022

Uncertainty persists, but yield is back and fundamentals matter.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

January 2023 / MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS

A New Dollar Smile: Where Next for the U.S. Dollar?

A New Dollar Smile: Where Next for the U.S....

Our analysis shows the U.S. dollar is at risk of weakening.

By Multiple Authors

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

China Market Outlook 2023

"What should be" versus "What is likely to happen"

By Wenli Zheng

Wenli Zheng Regional Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

Asian ex-Japan 2023 Market Outlook

Patiently Building Long-Term Positions

By Anh Lu

Anh Lu Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / MARKET OUTLOOK

2023 Global Market Outlook: The Need for Agility

2023 Global Market Outlook: The Need for...

A time to be selectively contrarian.

By Andrew McCormick, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

November 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Are U.S. stocks worth the price?

The Magnificent 7 have distorted U.S. equity valuations.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

October 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

Global Spotlight on Efforts to Avoid Escalation of Israel-Gaza Conflict

Global Spotlight on Efforts to Avoid Escalation...

Energy markets face limited impact, while regional bond markets remain sensitive...

By Peter Botoucharov, Razan Nasser & Elliot Shue

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on Oil Prices

The Impact of the Israel-Hamas War on Oil...

Amid near-term pressures, secular drivers will likely remain intact.

By Shinwoo Kim & Jacqueline H. Fortner

October 2023 / ECONOMICS

Why the “High for Longer” Narrative Is Flawed

Central banks will likely ease sooner than expected.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

October 2023 / ASSET ALLOCATION

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

An uptick in some prices could mean higher rates for longer.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

October 2023 / VIDEO

The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

September 2023 / STRATEGIC INVESTING

Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance Our Investment Processes

Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance...

Driving deliberate innovation with AI tools to boost human decision‑making

By Robert W. Sharps

Robert W. Sharps Chief Executive Officer and President

September 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Treasury Yields, Up, Up, and Away…?

By Christina Noonan

Christina Noonan Associate Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Division

September 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

Regional Banks Stabilize, Yet Pressures Remain

Regulatory changes will do little to solve higher cost of funding.

By Matt J. Snowling & Pranay Subedi

August 2023 / VIDEO

Leaning Into Real Assets

Our Asset Allocation Committee recently added to real assets equities, given attractive...

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

July 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Equities Are Back in Favor

Earnings outlook for U.S. companies is trending positive.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

June 2023 / ECONOMICS

A Garden Variety Recession Is Coming

It will be very different than 2008 and 2020.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

June 2023 / ECONOMICS

The World Faces a Highly Variable Inflation Outlook

The World Faces a Highly Variable Inflation...

The U.S. and UK face a tougher challenge than the Nordics and eurozone.

By Tomasz Wieladek & Aadish Kumar

June 2023 / VIDEO

Fintechs: Evaluating the Threat to Emerging Markets Banks

Fintechs: Evaluating the Threat to Emerging...

By Mariel Abreu

Mariel Abreu Credit Analyst

June 2023 / U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY

U.S. Debt Deal May Mark New Era in Federal Spending

U.S. Debt Deal May Mark New Era in Federal...

Here's what it could mean for the economy, industry, and policy.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Washington Associate Analyst, U.S. Equity Division

May 2023 / VIDEO

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on Guard

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on...

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

May 2023 / FIXED INCOME

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency Debt

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency...

A potentially rewarding asset class.

By Nathan Wang & Wenting Shen

May 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Labor Market Strength May Be Tenuous

Managing a global equity strategy during the coronavirus crisis.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

April 2023 / VIDEO

A More Turbulent Path for the Fed

Calming banking jitters amid high inflation and slowing growth.

By Christina Noonan

Christina Noonan Associate Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Division

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

U.S. Banks: Should Investors Withdraw Their Concerns?

U.S. Banks: Should Investors Withdraw Their...

By Christopher T. Fortune, Joseph Mlinac & Stephon Jackson

March 2023 / VIDEO

Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession Is Not Imminent

Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession...

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

March 2023 / VIDEO

A Recession May Be Delayed, Not Avoided

Near-term tailwinds could favor international markets.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

February 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Asset Allocation: Beyond Diversification

Insights from the Multi-Asset engine room.

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

February 2023 / VIDEO

Macro and Absolute Perspectives: Opportunities in Non-U.S. Markets

Macro and Absolute Perspectives: Opportunities...

U.S. markets remain tepid, but we do see potential opportunities in areas such as...

By Richard de los Reyes

Richard de los Reyes Portfolio Manager

February 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

The Case for a Dedicated China Allocation Within EM

The Case for a Dedicated China Allocation...

In China, change is the only constant.

By Thomas Poullaouec, Robert Secker & Nathan Wang

February 2023 / ASSET ALLOCATION

Validating Your U.S. and Non-U.S. Equity Exposure

Validating Your U.S. and Non-U.S. Equity...

What do your allocations say about your return expectations?

By Marin Lolic, Robert Panariello & Som Priestley

January 2023 / MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

The Eurozone's Recession Will Likely Be Deeper Than Expected

The Eurozone's Recession Will Likely Be Deeper...

The European Central Bank may have to cease hiking earlier than planned.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

December 2022 / VIDEO

The 2023 Inflation Outlook

Interest rate cut is unlikely if inflation settles above Fed’s target.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

The Outlook for Japan Remains Finely Poised

Divergent policy, relative to other major markets, has broad implications.

By Archibald Ciganer

Archibald Ciganer Regional Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / ECONOMICS

Do Not Underestimate the Impact of Quantitative Tightening

Do Not Underestimate the Impact of Quantitative...

It may affect economies more than central banks assume.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

December 2022 / MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS

Multi-Asset Solutions: Contrarian Investing During a Sell-Off

Multi-Asset Solutions: Contrarian Investing...

By Lowell Yura, Christina Kellar & Som Priestley

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