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Capital Market Assumptions
Five-Year Perspective
2023

June 2023 / WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE

Global Markets Weekly Update

Our analysts recap activities across global markets in our weekly report.

May 2023 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Our experts share perspective on market themes and regional trends, plus insights...

May 2023 / VIDEO

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China Relations

Three Themes Investors Should Watch in U.S.-China...

Competition between these powers creates risk and opportunity.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Washington Associate Analyst
U.S. Equity Division

April 2023 / QUARTERLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Quarterly Update

For First Quarter 2023

April 2023 / ECONOMICS

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much Longer

The ECB’s Hawkish Stance May Not Last Much...

Market events could prompt a softening of policy this summer.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

March 2023 / MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

Global Markets Monthly Update

For February 2023

March 2023 / VIDEO

A Recession May Be Delayed, Not Avoided

Near-term tailwinds could favor international markets.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

March 2023 / VIDEO

Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession Is Not Imminent

Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession...

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

March 2023 / FINANCIAL SERVICES

Bank Contagion Appears Limited, but Failures Create Key Risks

Bank Contagion Appears Limited, but Failures...

Heightened liquidity constraints and disruption require deft investing touch.

By Matt J. Snowling & David M. DiPietro

February 2023 / VIDEO

A Long-Awaited Reversal

Near-term tailwinds could favor international markets.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

February 2023 / ECONOMICS

The Mild Winter Will Delay Europe’s Recession, Not Prevent It

The Mild Winter Will Delay Europe’s Recession,...

Other risks will likely weigh on the Continent later this year.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

February 2023 / VIDEO

What Investors Need to Know About the U.S. Debt Ceiling

What Investors Need to Know About the U.S....

The impasse over raising the debt ceiling may roil markets.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

February 2023 / ASSET ALLOCATION

Validating Your U.S. and Non-U.S. Equity Exposure

Validating Your U.S. and Non-U.S. Equity...

What do your allocations say about your return expectations?

By Marin Lolic, Robert Panariello & Som Priestley

January 2023 / MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS

A New Dollar Smile: Where Next for the U.S. Dollar?

A New Dollar Smile: Where Next for the U.S....

Our analysis shows the U.S. dollar is at risk of weakening.

By Multiple Authors

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

Asian ex-Japan 2023 Market Outlook

Patiently Building Long-Term Positions

By Anh Lu

Anh Lu Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

The Outlook for Japan Remains Finely Poised

Divergent policy, relative to other major markets, has broad implications.

By Archibald Ciganer

Archibald Ciganer Regional Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS

Multi-Asset Solutions: Contrarian Investing During a Sell-Off

Multi-Asset Solutions: Contrarian Investing...

By Lowell Yura, Christina Kellar & Som Priestley

December 2022 / ECONOMICS

Do Not Underestimate the Impact of Quantitative Tightening

Do Not Underestimate the Impact of Quantitative...

It may affect economies more than central banks assume.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

November 2022 / ECONOMICS

Strong Growth Now May Not Mitigate a Recession Next Year

Strong Growth Now May Not Mitigate a Recession...

Central bankers may have to rethink this key assumption.

By Tomasz Wieladek & Aadish Kumar

November 2022 / VIDEO

Markets May Need More Than a Fed Pivot to Cure Woes

Markets May Need More Than a Fed Pivot to...

For sustained gains, markets need a Fed pivot and positive outlook.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

October 2022 / GLOBAL EQUITIES

QM Equity Quarterly Newsletter

Q3 2022

October 2022 / VIDEO

Midterm Election Preview: What Investors Need to Know

Midterm Election Preview: What Investors...

Regardless of the election's outcome, federal agencies will be an important tool...

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

September 2022 / VIDEO

Navigating Challenging Currents: T. Rowe Price CIOs Discuss Today's Market...

Navigating Challenging Currents: T. Rowe Price CIOs Discuss Today's Markets...

Navigating Challenging Currents: T. Rowe Price...

By Eric L. Veiel, Andrew McCormick & Christopher Dillon

September 2022 / VIDEO

Outlook May Favor High Yield Bonds Over Equities

High yield bonds could offer a yield advantage relative to equities.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

September 2022 / MULTI-ASSET SOLUTIONS

Contrarian Investing During a Sell-Off: An Update

Contrarian Investing During a Sell-Off: An...

High inflation and rising rates complicate the analysis.

By Megumi Chen, Sébastien Page & Som Priestley

August 2022 / VIDEO

A Fall in Earnings Estimates Could Worsen Sell-Off

A Fall in Earnings Estimates Could Worsen...

Attractive stock prices are based on optimistic earnings estimates.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

July 2022 / GLOBAL ECONOMY

Economic Headwinds Are Proving Stronger Than Expected

Economic Headwinds Are Proving Stronger Than...

The challenges facing the global economy will not abate soon.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

May 2023 / VIDEO

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on Guard

Stubborn Services Inflation Keeps Fed on...

By Blerina Uruçi

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

May 2023 / FIXED INCOME

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency Debt

Inside the Engine Room of EM Local Currency...

A potentially rewarding asset class.

By Nathan Wang & Wenting Shen

May 2023 / LIQUIDITY

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank Funding

Raising the Debt Ceiling Could Pressure Bank...

But cash squeeze may force the Fed to halt quantitative tightening.

By Adam Marden & Pranay Subedi

May 2023 / VIDEO

U.S. Labor Market Strength May Be Tenuous

Managing a global equity strategy during the coronavirus crisis.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

April 2023 / MULTI-ASSET INSIGHTS

Multi-Asset Collaboration and Due Diligence

How we actively monitor and fortify our building blocks.

By Kim DeDominicis, Amy Seman & Toby M. Thompson

April 2023 / VIDEO

A More Turbulent Path for the Fed

Calming banking jitters amid high inflation and slowing growth.

By Christina Noonan

Christina Noonan Associate Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Division

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

One Foot on the Brake and One on the Gas

My views on the economic and market implications of the banking turmoil.

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

U.S. Banks: Should Investors Withdraw Their Concerns?

U.S. Banks: Should Investors Withdraw Their...

By Christopher T. Fortune, Joseph Mlinac & Stephon Jackson

March 2023 / FIXED INCOME

Cutting a Path

T. Rowe Price’s Saurabh Sud goes where the credit opportunities take him.

By Saurabh Sud

Saurabh Sud Portfolio Manager

March 2023 / MARKET EVENTS

U.S. Bank Failures: What Happened and What We're Watching

U.S. Bank Failures: What Happened and What...

February 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

Asset Allocation: Beyond Diversification

Insights from the Multi-Asset engine room.

By Sébastien Page

Sébastien Page Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO

February 2023 / VIDEO

Macro and Absolute Perspectives: Opportunities in Non-U.S. Markets

Macro and Absolute Perspectives: Opportunities...

U.S. markets remain tepid, but we do see potential opportunities in areas such as...

By Richard de los Reyes

Richard de los Reyes Portfolio Manager

February 2023 / MULTI-ASSET

The Case for a Dedicated China Allocation Within EM

The Case for a Dedicated China Allocation...

In China, change is the only constant.

By Thomas Poullaouec, Robert Secker & Nathan Wang

January 2023 / VIDEO

Five Key Insights From 2022

Uncertainty persists, but yield is back and fundamentals matter.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

January 2023 / MONTHLY MARKET REVIEW

The Eurozone's Recession Will Likely Be Deeper Than Expected

The Eurozone's Recession Will Likely Be Deeper...

The European Central Bank may have to cease hiking earlier than planned.

By Tomasz Wieladek

Tomasz Wieladek T. Rowe Price Chief European Economist

December 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

China Market Outlook 2023

"What should be" versus "What is likely to happen"

By Wenli Zheng

Wenli Zheng Regional Portfolio Manager

December 2022 / VIDEO

The 2023 Inflation Outlook

Interest rate cut is unlikely if inflation settles above Fed’s target.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

December 2022 / MARKET OUTLOOK

2023 Global Market Outlook: The Need for Agility

2023 Global Market Outlook: The Need for...

A time to be selectively contrarian.

By Andrew McCormick, Sébastien Page & Justin Thomson

November 2022 / U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Divided Government Likely to Usher in Legislative Gridlock

Divided Government Likely to Usher in Legislative...

Investors should focus on fundamentals, not political changes.

By Michael Pinkerton, Blerina Uruçi & Eric L. Veiel

November 2022 / VIDEO

Absolute Return Perspectives: Quantitative Tightening-Potential Implicatio...

Absolute Return Perspectives: Quantitative Tightening-Potential Implications...

Absolute Return Perspectives: Quantitative...

By Richard de los Reyes

Richard de los Reyes Portfolio Manager

October 2022 / VIDEO

Video Series: Global Market Perspectives

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

October 2022 / GLOBAL ECONOMY

The Storm in Financial Markets Is Not Over Yet

The Storm in Financial Markets Is Not Over...

Inflationary pressures may be receding, however.

By Nikolaj Schmidt

Nikolaj Schmidt Chief Global Economist

September 2022 / VIDEO

Semiconductor Subsidies Signal Shift in U.S. Industrial Policy

Semiconductor Subsidies Signal Shift in U.S....

Focus on shoring up key supply chains likely has legs.

By Michael Pinkerton

Michael Pinkerton Associate Analyst

September 2022 / VIDEO

Fed's Inflation Fight Likely to Persist

Steady rise in cost of services clouds inflation outlook.

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

September 2022 / ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINT

Adjusting Asset Allocation for ESG Preferences

A systematic portfolio construction framework to reflect ESG considerations.

By Multiple Authors

September 2022 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

The Regime Change in Markets Demands Fresh Ideas

The Regime Change in Markets Demands Fresh...

Alpha potential is still available for those who adapt to the new paradigm.

By Justin Thomson

Justin Thomson Head of International Equity and CIO

July 2022 / GLOBAL EQUITIES

QM Equity Quarterly Newsletter

Q2 2022

July 2022 / VIDEO

Tech Stock Valuations Have Become Reasonable

By Timothy C. Murray

Timothy C. Murray Capital Markets Strategist

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