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Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

Read our committee’s tactical views, positioning, risks, and opportunities across global assets.

April 2026

Outlook

Continued conflict in the Middle East and energy supply shock threaten higher inflation and weaker growth, particularly in energy-import dependent economies.
Despite elevated risk to growth and inflation, earnings momentum and economic growth still remain favorable, underpinned by accommodative fiscal policies across many regions.
U.S. economic growth continues to show resilience driven by AI-driven capex, consumer spending and supportive fiscal policy; however, weakness in the labor market warrants monitoring.
Markets outside the U.S. have been benefitting from firmer domestic demand and policy, where fiscal initiatives and improving corporate profitability are supportive. Sustained higher energy prices pose a risk.
Key risks to global markets include escalating geopolitical tensions, a resurgence in inflation, reliance on AI-driven growth,
further deterioration in labor markets, and a widening of liquidity concerns within private credit.

Geopolitical tensions and energy supply disruptions are adding complexity to today’s market environment. Beneath the headlines, however, shifts in fundamentals and sector leadership may be creating selective opportunities for investors. This perspective explores how these forces are shaping market behavior, valuations, and sentiment, with a focus on practical portfolio implications rather than broad market calls. By examining the balance between macro risks and underlying resilience, it offers a nuanced view of where dislocations and opportunities may emerge. The result is a timely and informative analysis for investors seeking greater clarity in a rapidly evolving landscape.

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