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2026 Capital Market Assumptions: Five-Year Perspective

Explore T. Rowe Price's 2026 Capital Market Assumptions for a clear, forward-looking view on global return expectations.

March 2026

Get clear insights from our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions, offering grounded forecasts and analysis to help you navigate a dynamic investment landscape.

Key Insights

  • Lower expected returns for most developed market equities, driven by elevated valuations and slower structural growth prospects.
  • Fixed income return potential is muted due to lower starting yields and tighter spreads, while we believe alternatives offer differentiated opportunities.
  • Slightly higher volatility assumptions in 2026, reflecting the elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty experienced in 2025.

 

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Curious about how T. Rowe Price develops its Capital Market Assumptions? Explore our detailed methodology to see the rigorous research, expert insights, and analytical frameworks that underpin our long-term forecasts and inform our investment process.Presenting our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions Five Year Perspective providing an in-depth analysis of expected volatilities and correlations across fixed income, equity and alternatives.

 

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types, advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

Risks: All investments are subject to risk, including possible loss of principal. Stock prices can fall because of weakness in the broad market, a particular industry, or specific holdings. Fixed-income securities are subject to credit risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and interest- rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.

USA: T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. © 2026 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, the Bighorn Sheep design and related indicators (see troweprice.com/ip) are trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

202503-5332345

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T. Rowe Price (“TRP”) claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®).

A complete list and description of the Firm's composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS® standards are available upon request. Additional information regarding the firm's policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance results is available upon request

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