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Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

A view from Canada

September 2026, Multi-Asset

Outlook
  • Markets have remained resilient, supported by strong and broadening corporate earnings and sustained AI-related investment, although elevated valuations and geopolitical uncertainty remain sources of volatility.
  • The global economy remains supported by technology investment and fiscal spending, though growth is increasingly uneven across regions as higher energy costs, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty create divergent pressures.
  • The policy outlook remains highly data dependent as central banks balance persistent inflation pressures against resilient growth, while fiscal concerns and strong investment demand are contributing to upward pressure on longer-term yields.
  • Canada’s outlook is improving on resilient growth, contained core inflation and fiscal support. Trade uncertainty and higher rates remain risks, while the Bank of Canada remains cautious on inflation.
  • Key risks include renewed geopolitical escalation and commodity price volatility, persistent inflation and higher interest rates, earnings sustainability, and signs of deterioration in labor markets.

Markets remain supported by broadening corporate earnings and AI-related investment, while Canada’s outlook is improving amid resilient growth, contained core inflation and fiscal support. Equity positioning favors U.S. growth, emerging markets and smaller companies, while Canadian equities benefit from strong fundamentals, reasonable valuations and energy and materials exposure. Emerging markets also offer attractive valuations and expanding investment beyond technology. Fixed income positioning remains cautious as inflation and resilient growth could keep rates elevated. Canadian investment-grade bonds are neutral, with softer labor and housing conditions providing some offset. Key risks include trade uncertainty, higher rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions and commodity volatility.


 

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Navy background with four boxes at the upper right-hand corner A view from Canada

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

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202605-5495539

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