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Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

A view from Canada

July 2026, Multi-Asset

Outlook
  • Markets have continued to push higher despite geopolitical uncertainty, supported by resilient earnings and ongoing AI-driven investment, even as inflation and policy risks remain. 
  • The global economy continues to benefit from fiscal spending and investment in AI infrastructure, though growth is becoming more uneven across regions and the path of energy prices remains uncertain. 
  • The policy outlook remains uncertain as central banks balance lingering inflation pressures against concerns about moderating growth and a gradually softening labor market, leaving the path for interest rates increasingly data dependent. 
  • Canadian outlook remains positive due to strengthening natural resources demand, insulation from energy shortages as well as fiscal initiatives and deregulation. However, USMCA negotiations could create near-term volatility. 
  • Key risks include a renewed rise in energy prices and inflation, further geopolitical escalation, continued reliance on a narrow set of market leaders, and signs of deterioration in labor markets or private market liquidity

Markets have remained resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty, supported by strong corporate earnings, fiscal spending, and continued investment in AI. While inflation, energy prices, and policy uncertainty continue to pose risks, the outlook remains constructive, with Canada benefiting from natural resources demand and fiscal support. The report maintains a neutral stance on equities overall while favoring U.S. growth, emerging markets, and small-cap stocks. It also remains cautious on long-duration bonds, preferring high yield and inflation protection as investors navigate a more data-dependent interest rate environment and potentially higher market volatility.


 

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Navy background with four boxes at the upper right-hand corner A view from Canada

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

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This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is no guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

Canada—Issued in Canada by T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc.'s investment management services are only available to non‑individual Accredited Investors and non‑individual Permitted Clients as defined under National Instrument 45‑106 and National Instrument 31‑103, respectively. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. enters into written delegation agreements with affiliates to provide investment management services. 

© 2026 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. Rowe Price, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, the Bighorn Sheep design, and related indicators (see troweprice.com/ip) are trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Use does not imply endorsement, sponsorship, or affiliation of T. Rowe Price with any of the trademark owners.

202605-5495539

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