Skip to content
Download the PDF

2026 Capital Market Assumptions: Five-Year Perspective

Explore T. Rowe Price's 2026 Capital Market Assumptions for a clear, forward-looking view on global return expectations.

March 2026

Get clear insights from our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions, offering grounded forecasts and analysis to help you navigate a dynamic investment landscape.

Key Insights

  • Lower expected returns for most developed market equities, driven by elevated valuations and slower structural growth prospects.
  • Fixed income return potential is muted due to lower starting yields and tighter spreads, while we believe alternatives offer differentiated opportunities.
  • Slightly higher volatility assumptions in 2026, reflecting the elevated macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty experienced in 2025.

 

Download PDF


Curious about how T. Rowe Price develops its Capital Market Assumptions? Explore our detailed methodology to see the rigorous research, expert insights, and analytical frameworks that underpin our long-term forecasts and inform our investment process.Presenting our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions Five Year Perspective providing an in-depth analysis of expected volatilities and correlations across fixed income, equity and alternatives.

 

Read More

Market Insights

Stay informed about economic developments and our perspective on market conditions.

View

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is no guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

Canada - Issued in Canada by T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc.'s investment management services are only available to non-individual Accredited Investors and non-individual Permitted Clients as defined under National Instrument 45-106 and National Instrument 31-103, respectively. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. enters into written delegation agreements with affiliates to provide investment management services.

Residents of Quebec may request a French translation of this document. Please contact CanadaTranslationRequests@troweprice.com. Les résidents du Québec peuvent demander une traduction française de ce document. S'il vous plaît contactez CanadaTranslationRequests@troweprice.com.

© 2026 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, the Bighorn Sheep design, and related indicators (https://www.troweprice.com/en/intellectual-property) are trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

202503-5332345

Download

Latest Date Range
Audience for the document: Share Class: Language of the document:
Download Cancel

Open

Share Class: Language of the document:
Open Cancel
Sign in to manage subscriptions for products, insights and email updates.
Sign in
Once registered, you'll be able to start subscribing.

By clicking the Continue button, I acknowledge that I have read and accepted the Privacy Notice

Continue Back

Change Details

If you need to change your email address please contact us.
Subscriptions
OK
You are ready to start subscribing.
Get started by going to our products or insights section to follow what you're interested in.

Products Insights

GIPS® Information

T. Rowe Price (“TRP”) claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®).

A complete list and description of the Firm's composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS® standards are available upon request. Additional information regarding the firm's policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance results is available upon request

Other Literature

You have successfully subscribed.

Notify me by email when
regular data and commentary is available
exceptional commentary is available
new articles become available

Thank you for your continued interest