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香港
中文
選擇您的地區
2025年10月
Which areas of the market look favourable to you today?
So right now when I look across the stock market, you know there are always some opportunities that are attractive. But I find myself more drawn than usual to the financial sector. After 15 years post financial crisis of the government tightening the screws on big banks and adding additional regulations, and also under some administrations, restricting the ability of companies to do M&A. Under the Trump administration, this deregulatory push is pretty pronounced. This is going to allow banks to earn higher ROEs, it's allowing capital markets activity to come back in a big way. That creates opportunities in large banks, regional banks and capital market stocks. We're also really interested, as we have been for the last several years, in some of the really large, durable growth companies in the market, the ones that are stealing oxygen from the real economy. We think that the reasons that these companies have outpaced the market are durable and are going to continue over time. And so we continue to find really good opportunities in some of the larger cap cohorts in the market.
What are the key risks to your outlook?
Over time, stocks tend to compound with earnings growth. And I feel pretty good about the trajectory of earnings growth in the US market right now. Earnings growth seems to be broadening out - even small caps which haven't seen earnings growth in the last three years or so are starting to see better numbers. So I feel good about the underlying earnings trajectory. But what I worry about really is the bond market. We are running a really big fiscal deficit. And we already have seen a couple times this year bond yields backing up, and causing equity markets to flinch as a result. This happened near the peak pain of the Liberation Day era in April and May. And so if the bond market gets uncomfortable with the fiscal outlook in the US, then there's a chance the cost of capital will rise and equity multiples will be impacted. But I worry about that more than I do about the underlying earnings growth in equities right now.
How are you setting up the portfolio longer term given your outlook?
So we have a flexible portfolio where we're able to buy stocks, the value side of the ledger, or small cap, growth, you name it. But over time, I think that we win by having a significant allocation to the highest quality business models out there. Businesses that are just fundamentally winning in the marketplace. And so I would expect that on a go forward basis, you'll continue to see a healthy representation of some of the highest quality businesses that outgrow the underlying economy, that have defensible business models. And that's been the case, for the last several years.
Portfolio Manager Justin White explains why he sees strong opportunities in financial sector, while cautioning that rising bond yields and fiscal deficits could pressure equity valuations despite solid earnings growth. As a result, identifying high-quality companies remains key for active stock pickers.
Justin White, CFA
基金經理
2025年10月
實地研究
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