The global economy avoided recession in the first half. As investors move into the second half of 2023, distinguishing the signal from the noise could be especially critical as higher interest rates and tighter liquidity are fully felt.
We believe it is reasonable to be reluctantly bearish on financial markets for the balance of 2023. Concerns remain centered on inflation, policy, and recession – but mixed data complicates the outlook.
Bonds Are Back?
The sharp rise in bond yields since early 2022 has improved return potential in many fixed income sectors. But an aggressive portfolio shift into longer‑term bonds still appears premature.
A Focus on Earnings
Equity markets have delivered strong gains in the first half of 2023, however a focus on valuations and earnings will be important in the second half, amid a potential growth shock.
2023 China Midyear Market Outlook
A more broad-based recovery after initial reopening, though some bumpiness is expected.
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