April 2023 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
Labor Market Resilience Suggests Recession is Not Imminent
Growth accelerated in late 2022, and data released so far in 2023 solidify the case that a recession is not imminent.
Key Insights
- Growth accelerated in the second half of last year, and economic data released so far in 2023 solidify the case that a U.S. recession is not imminent.
- There have been pockets of softness in the labor market relative to last year, but overall it remains resilient.
- Consumer price inflation seems to have peaked, but the Fed is looking for broadly based improvements to be content that inflation is on a sustained downtrend.
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Blerina Uruçi is the chief U.S. economist in the Fixed Income Division. She contributes to the formulation of investment strategy and supports investment and client development activities throughout T. Rowe Price, specifically focusing on the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation, and monetary policy. Blerina is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. Blerina's investment experience began in 2007, and she has been with T. Rowe Price since 2022, beginning in the Fixed Income Division. Prior to this, Blerina was employed by Barclays Capital as a senior U.S. economist. Before that, she was a European economist with Barclays in its London office, where she was accountable for the UK market. Blerina earned a B.Sc., first-class honors, in economics and politics from the University of Bath and an M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science.
