Earn CE: 2026 U.S. Retirement Market Outlook

Michael Davis:
Our 2026 Retirement Market Outlook, titled Adapting to an Evolving Ecosystem, highlights four key areas we expect to be focal points in the retirement landscape this year. First, significant developments in retirement policy. Second, the need to build more resilient retirement investments. Third, how artificial intelligence and other innovations are transforming retirement. And finally, the growing momentum around advice and personalization.

Jessica Sclafani:
Today’s DC plan participants require more robust retirement investment solutions that can meet their varied needs across a range of market environments. Since being designated as QDIAs nearly two decades ago, target date strategies have evolved well beyond their foundational diversification framework, moving past a simple stocks‑versus‑bonds approach. Today, many target date solutions have matured to employ a more sophisticated approach to diversification, incorporating a variety of sub‑asset classes and potentially including alternative investment strategies.

Nearly three‑quarters of the largest DC‑focused consultant and advisor firms have identified an increased focus on fixed income diversification opportunities as a primary driver influencing their evaluation of fixed income investments.

Private market assets have grown significantly over the past 15 years, nearly three times as fast as public assets. Today, private assets represent a larger portion of the total investable universe. We believe that a broader opportunity set can potentially lead to better outcomes. Private market investments, including private equity, private credit, and private infrastructure, may provide access to company growth and return premia that differ from public‑only portfolios.

Aliya Robinson:
We do not see these lawsuits contributing to the retirement system or benefiting plan participants. Instead, they are largely driven by settlements.

Under SECURE 2.0, we saw the introduction of several new withdrawal provisions, including two that address emergency savings. One allows for emergency withdrawals, and the other introduces pension‑linked emergency savings accounts.

T. Rowe Price is one of the first firms to offer pension‑linked emergency savings accounts. We are working with several plan sponsors to set these up and support plan participants — not only in saving for retirement, but also in having access to cash for emergencies when they need it.

As we look at the legislative agenda, the two factors most likely to limit activity are time and politics. With midterm elections later this year, we expect roughly a six‑month window for meaningful legislative action.

Brandon Shea:
When it comes to retirement services, we are entering a new era in which AI can materially improve how advice is delivered, how plans are run, and how participants engage. Efficiency is the key — it creates more time for advice, faster service, and better outcomes. We are seeing AI shift from what is possible to what is practical.

Generational preferences are reshaping expectations across our industry. Seventy‑four percent of Gen X, millennial, and Gen Z participants want to execute transactions through virtual assistants, which shows that participants increasingly expect retirement experiences to mirror the best digital interactions they have elsewhere.

AI is now giving our industry the tools to deliver on that efficiency, but only if the foundation is right. AI is only as good as the data behind it. Clean, connected, and governed data is what turns automation into real outcomes.

Human oversight remains essential, particularly for high‑stakes decisions. Privacy and accountability must be built in from the start. Trust is the product in retirement, and governance is not optional.

Rachel Weker:
In 2026, advice and personalization are becoming foundational expectations rather than optional enhancements. Retirement plan participants are navigating increasingly complex financial environments, which is driving more complicated decision‑making and a greater need for guidance.

Technology is enabling the delivery of personalization at scale, aligning with the ways participants are actively seeking advice. Across the industry, there is a growing appetite to deliver scalable advice solutions, particularly for participants nearing retirement.

We see advice and personalization becoming baseline expectations for retirement plan participants. Advice will no longer be treated as an optional feature. Instead, it will be embedded into the core participant experience, with technology and AI serving as powerful enablers.

Visit troweprice.com/glossary for definitions of financial terms.

Investment Risks

Personalized solutions are subject to risks including possible loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment objective will be met.

Private market assets—including private equity, private debt, real estate, and infrastructure—typically carry higher risks, greater volatility, and reduced liquidity compared to public market assets.

The principal value of target date strategies is not guaranteed at any time, including at or after the target date, which is the approximate year an investor plans to retire. These products typically invest in a broad range of underlying strategies that include asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and short-term investments and are subject to the risks of different areas of the market. A substantial allocation to equities both prior to and after the target date can result in greater volatility over short-term horizons. In addition, the objectives of target date strategies typically change over time to become more conservative.

Important Information

T. Rowe Price implements AI solutions in accordance with our internal technical and security policies & standards.

This material is provided for general and educational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, tax, or investment advice. This material does not provide recommendations concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types; it is not individualized to the needs of any specific investor and not intended to suggest any particular investment action is appropriate for you.

The views contained herein are as of January 28, 2026, and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types; advice of any kind; or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal.

T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., distributor, and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., investment adviser.

© 2026 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, the Bighorn Sheep design, and related indicators (see troweprice.com/ip) are trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Use does not imply endorsement, sponsorship, or affiliation of T. Rowe Price with any of the trademark owners.

202602-5235512