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November 2020 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Global Asset Allocation: November Insights

Discover the latest global market themes

MARKET INSIGHTS

As of 31 October 2020

Blue Ripple?

A Biden presidency, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, is a possible outcome of the US elections. Most polls heading into the election were predicting the possibility of a ‘Blue Wave’, leading to a Democratic president, Senate and House that could have resulted in higher levels of fiscal spending countered by the potential for policies of higher taxes. Markets appeared to be celebrating the potential for a divided government, tempering the chances for more aggressive policies by either party and hopefully leading to an environment of more compromise. One area that may come into focus is regulation, with a spotlight on the technology sector, as there appears to be bi-partisan support for such measures. If the increasingly likely outcome of a divided government holds, a more balanced political environment could potentially lead to reduced market volatility and a more supportive backdrop for risk assets.

Insurance Cancelled

Heading into the election, US Treasury yields remained range-bound to slightly higher despite bouts of increased volatility and stocks selling off. While stock and bond correlations move around over time, their prices historically have been negatively correlated during periods of market stress where risk assets sell off with investors fleeing to the safety of US Treasuries. As volatility picked up, investors took notice as this reliable insurance policy did not respond. It appeared stocks were reacting to short-term risks of an unsettled, chaotic election, while bonds looked through to the potential for fiscal spending that could move yields higher. With yields hovering at record‑low levels, investors may not be getting compensated for the increased duration risk if rates were to revert higher. While investors may be rethinking how to hedge against their equity exposures, US Treasuries still provide ballast even if their positive appreciation may be tempered at current levels, and importantly provide liquidity when it is at a premium.

There’s No Place Like Housing

Amid the upheaval brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, real estate markets across the board have been impacted on an unprecedented scale. On one hand, the residential housing market continues to boom, spurred on by low rates and a resilient consumer. Many homebuyers are fleeing big cities for more space, as several major companies have extended work from home provisions. However, in stark contrast, commercial real estate, particularly retail, office space and hotels, have continued to face headwinds. Trends that began to take hold pre-coronavirus, such as moves towards online versus brick-and-mortar retail, have been further perpetuated by the pandemic. Similarly, demand for office space could be impaired going forward as working from home trends may become more permanent. If these trends persist, areas of the market exposed to commercial real estate, such as office and retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) will remain challenged.

For a region-by-region overview, download the PDF.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

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November 2020 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

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October 2020 / INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Global Asset Allocation: October Insights

Global Asset Allocation: October Insights

Global Asset Allocation: October Insights

Discover the latest global market themes

By Yoram Lustig

Yoram Lustig Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, EMEA & Latam

September 2020 / Investment Insights

Global Asset Allocation: September Insights

Global Asset Allocation: September Insights

Global Asset Allocation: September Insights

Discover the latest global market themes

By Yoram Lustig

Yoram Lustig Head of Multi-Asset Solutions, EMEA & Latam

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