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2025 Global Market Outlook

Making the most of the 2025 transition

We believe the world is transitioning at a pace and scale rarely seen before. Not since the aftermath of the GFC have we observed such a breadth and richness of investment opportunities. Our CIOs and investment experts reveal what key economic and investment themes they believe will shape markets in 2025 and where they are seeing the greatest potential for upside.  


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Our 2025 global market outlook helps you navigate the winding road to normalization and explores the market implications.

The rate cutting cycle has begun, but global central banks will continue to be data dependent.

We anticipate a normalization if policy at a more gradual pace relative to market pricing.

Growth is moderating but remains resilient. And although good progress has been made on inflation, it's not over until it's over and is likely to remain volatile.

Labour markets are easing and are a key area to watch.

Key risks include elevated geopolitical tensions, slowing growth, sticky inflation, and monetary policy missteps.

As we navigate this new equilibrium, our portfolio construction themes argue for continued diversification across stocks, fixed income and real assets.

Bond yields have been on a roller coaster ride as markets preempted policy shifts.

Current market pricing implies upside risk to yields.

Cash yields remain attractive, but longer duration fixed income is vulnerable.

Although credit spreads are tight, all in yields look attractive.

High yield bonds, bank loans and emerging market bonds present income opportunities.

Equity markets have been dominated by a handful of stocks.

We're likely past the first innings of the AI infrastructure build out. However, the AI wave isn't over. It's evolving and stock selection will be critical.

We're excited about a golden age for healthcare amid radical innovation such as GLP-1 drugs and robotic surgery.

As economic growth broadens, we're encouraged by earnings broadening across both sectors and regions.

Diversifying into areas with valuation support and robust fundamentals such as value and small cap stocks seems prudent.

We see select opportunities in underappreciated sectors such as energy, financials and industrials.

2025 is shaping up to be a dynamic year. An active approach focused on fundamentals will be key.

Video summary

Take two minutes with Ritu

Capital Markets investment specialist Ritu Vohora provides a snapshot of the key factors influencing global markets and what that means for investors. 

Key factors that shaped our 2025 outlook

Manufacturing-led growth is set for a comeback

The global economy in 2025 is poised for a manufacturing-led recovery, supported by rate cuts from central banks like the ECB. Despite a cautious start due to China's economic uncertainties, Europe might see growth from easing monetary policies and potentially resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Structural shifts in manufacturing bases and a surge in infrastructure spending signal robust, yet uneven, global economic growth. 

More on the Global Economy Watch the Full Webinar
U.S. exceptionalism is expected to continue

The U.S. economic landscape remains robust, thanks to fiscal and monetary support. Inflation risks persist, with shelter costs and goods prices remaining volatile, likely keeping it above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) targets. Though further rate cuts from the Fed are anticipated in 2025, economic resilience could temper the extent of these cuts. Improving productivity could signify an end to the sluggish growth post-GFC.

More on the U.S. Economy Watch the Full Webinar
Broadening opportunities will span multiple sectors

In 2025, U.S. equity markets might see a shift as AI infrastructure growth slows and cyclical stocks' high valuations temper performance expectations. Small-cap stocks, trading at historic discounts, could benefit from rate cuts and economic improvements. Financials appear promising as rate cuts might improve their performance. The energy sector could see long-term gains, particularly in natural gas due to supply constraints.

More on U.S. Equities Watch the Full Webinar
Credit spreads are forecast to widen

High yield bonds, bank loans, and emerging market bonds present solid income opportunities for 2025. Despite predicted credit spread widening due to post-election volatility, high-quality government bond yields are expected to decrease with central bank rate cuts. The fixed income market remains volatile but attractive given current yields, especially if inflation resurges, warranting allocations to inflation-adjusted bonds.

More on Fixed Income Watch the Full Webinar
AI's "easy money" era is over

The initial artificial intelligence (AI) boom, sparked by innovations like ChatGPT, is transitioning away from early explosive growth to a more sustained phase. Nvidia remains a pivotal player, though competition is intensifying. Investment opportunities abound in AI-associated sectors like semiconductors, data infrastructure, and fintech. AI's evolution mirrors past tech booms but is underscored by real earnings growth rather than speculation.

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A wave of innovation is transforming the sector

The health care sector is on the cusp of a renaissance driven by groundbreaking treatments and technologies. GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes forecast significant economic implications. With the sector underperforming despite innovations, the return to lower rates and inventory stabilisation post-pandemic portends a potential rebound. Investors should focus on scientific insights to leverage the ongoing transformation in health care technologies.

More on Health Care Watch the Full Webinar

Ritu's back with the full webinar

Ritu Vohora hosts the 2025 global market outlook with the Head of Global Fixed Income and CIO Arif Husain, Chief U.S Economist Blerina Uruçi, Head of International Equity and CIO Justin Thomson, Head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO Sébastian Page, and Head of T. Rowe Price Investment Management Stephon Jackson. 

Watch the Full Webinar

Additional insights

By  Wenli Zheng
By  Kenneth A. Orchard
By  Paul Greene
By  Gilad Fortgang, Blerina Uruçi, Timothy C. Murray

 

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