Correlation Study: “Attitudes towards Europe and emerging equities are once more utterly divergent."
We have in the past looked at the correlation between people’s attitude to GEM equities and European equities. It was so interesting last time that we thought it was time to do an update.
– The top graph shows net sentiment numbers: zero means that the number of those wanting to buy is exactly matched by the number of sellers; a positive number means that there are more buyers; negative means more sellers.
– It compares the net sentiment of European fund selectors to Europe, GEM and Asia ex Japan equities. As you can probably see, for quite a lot of the time, when demand for Europe goes up, demand for GEM and Asia goes down and vice versa. There has been a fairly consistent negative correlation.
– We use the term ‘fairly consistent’ carefully, however, because it does change over time. The graph underneath shows the correlation between GEM and Asia to European equities: 100 means perfect correlation, -100 perfectly negative and zero means no discernable pattern at all.
– As you can see in 2015, EM and Europe reversed their negative correlations and became a little bit correlated – never more than 60% but nonetheless it was positive. Since the start of 2016, however, it has all reverted and now attitudes towards Europe and emerging equities are once more utterly divergent.
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