December 2023, Make Your Plan
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In recent years, the financial independence and retire early (FIRE) movement has gained a notable level of traction, especially among millennials and younger members of Generation X. Generally, the goal for FIRE enthusiasts is to curb expenses, save aggressively, and ultimately amass enough investable assets and budget flexibility to gain financial independence.
The meaning of financial independence varies. To some, it means fully retiring at an early age and never working again. To others, it means never fully retiring but foregoing the stress and time commitment of a typical nine-to-five job in exchange for work that ignites their passion or affords them greater control of their schedule and paycheck (commonly referred to as “Barista” FIRE). Some want to save aggressively now so they can spend more later (aka “Fat” FIRE), while others want to save aggressively now and always live frugally, spending at the same lower levels to which they’ve now grown accustomed (aka “Lean” FIRE).
Despite their differences, successful early financial independence seekers share several common characteristics. They’re personally committed to saving a significant portion of their income and have therefore trained themselves to live on less. Regardless of enjoyment, they tend to view their careers as fluid resources for generating income, wealth, and financial autonomy. Because they see work as a means to a happier and less stressful lifestyle, they’re generally open to the idea of “unretiring” (i.e., picking up work in retirement)—whether to reduce financial strain, increase personal fulfillment, or both.
That said, for a variety of reasons, many investors who want to retire earlier than age 65 may feel it’s unrealistic to achieve that goal in their 40s or early 50s. And in many cases, they are correct. Therefore, in this article, we will focus on the less extreme (and more attainable) objective of reaching financial independence by age 55—the age at which most workers can gain penalty‑free access to employer plan retirement savings. Though these steps can be applied to any early retirement plan, the age 55 milestone can serve as a reasonable target for a wide range of individuals.
Regardless of how you define financial independence, retiring at age 55 or earlier will involve some planning complexity, and standard rules of thumb, often, will either not apply or should be viewed in a different light.
Many FIRE advocates contend that a savings accumulation goal equivalent to 25x an individual’s current annual expenses could be adequate to achieve early financial independence. This concept and calculation, commonly referred to as the “rule of 25,” is purportedly consistent with a 4% initial portfolio withdrawal. We’ve identified a few issues with this concept as it pertains to early retirees.
The famous 4% withdrawal rule (typically applicable to 65‑year‑old retirees) is based on a 30‑year retirement. If you’re retiring early, that time horizon could be much longer. And 4% may not be so safe.Some or all of the dollar amount you withdraw using the 4% rule may be subject to tax. If so, that withdrawal is not the same as the net cash flow available to pay expenses. So, while it makes for easy math, the rule of 25 generally ignores taxes on withdrawals. To net 4% to cover expenses, a higher pretax withdrawal will be needed (unless your withdrawals are all tax‑free), thereby placing the portfolio’s long‑term sustainability at risk.The rule of 25 ignores Social Security benefits. That’s a very conservative assumption. While investors in their 20s, 30s, or 40s may doubt the solvency of the Social Security system, it is unlikely that they would receive no benefits later in life.
Before determining whether to further explore early retirement, make sure your essentials are covered. You should:
If you placed a check mark next to each of the above, you’re likely in a position to explore the further actions needed to attain financial independence by age 55.
The following steps can help you assess your current plan and understand what changes may be needed to improve your likelihood of early retirement.
By entering basic information such as your current age, savings rate, account balances, target retirement age, and your annual living expenses (in today’s dollars), you can get a sense of your likelihood to successfully retire early based on your current planning.
The tool runs a Monte Carlo analysis that tests your inputs against 1,000 randomized market outcomes to estimate your “confidence score.” The longer the time frame under consideration (and the younger the investor), the lower the confidence score will generally skew, because there’s simply more time for things to go awry. Therefore, for clients who are age 44 or younger to be in the “confidence zone,” 70% to 99% of the simulations must result in dollars remaining at the end of retirement. For investors age 45 and older, with a shorter time horizon, the confidence zone is 80% to 95%.1
Once you’ve obtained your preliminary confidence score, you can manipulate the various inputs to better understand which levers you may need to pull (such as savings rate, spending goal, investment mix, retirement age, etc.) to improve your likelihood of success. This could help motivate you to make the necessary upward adjustments to your savings rate and/or downward adjustments to your spending to meet your early retirement goal with some level of confidence.
Depending on your situation and goals, you may need to save anywhere from 30% to 60% of your annual earnings (including all employer contributions) to retire early. Let’s consider an example. (see “Confidence score based on age and savings rate”). Each of these investors earns $100,000 per year, has an annual retirement spending goal of $50,000 in today’s dollars, and would like to retire at age 55. Note that all four investors have current balances that would result in a confidence score over 90% based on a 15% savings rate and a retirement age of 65. But to retire earlier, additional savings are required.
(Fig. 1) To retire at age 55 with an annual spending goal of $50,000, the earlier you increase your savings rate, the less aggressive it needs to be.
Assumptions: Retirement Income Calculator results are as of 10/20/2023. For each scenario, investor is single, male, resides in Michigan, earns $100,000 per year (gross), and has a retirement spending goal of $50,000 per year (in today’s dollars); retirement savings and additions are 100% qualified (tax‑deferred) with an aggressive asset allocation (90% equity and 10% bonds); investors are age 30, 35, 40, and 45 (born in July 1993, 1988, 1983, and 1978), respectively; based on current savings, a 15% savings rate, and retirement age of 65, confidence scores are 98%, 98%, 97%, and 96%, respectively. Chart illustrates success scores given stated assumptions, a variety of future savings rates, and a target retirement age of 55. Chart is shown for illustrative purposes only and not meant to demonstrate results of any actual investor.
Retirement Income Calculator Methodology: https://www.troweprice.com/content/dam/investor/Forms/retirement‑income‑calculator‑methodology.pdf
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Retirement Income Calculator regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.
Since one of the prerequisites for targeting early retirement is the willingness and capacity to sustain an increased savings rate, it means you’ll also need to grow accustomed to spending less of your income. If you’re currently saving 30% to 60% of what you earn, you’re probably already minimizing spending and training yourself to live on less, which is a healthy habit if you plan to retire early.
If you’re saving 15% but spending the remainder of your income, you may need to examine your spending outlay to look for ways to cut expenses so you can direct more of your paycheck to savings.
If you find that you regularly have money left over at the end of the month, you should increase the amount you’re automatically investing toward retirement. (For further details on available account types, see Step 4.)
While many financial independence seekers are capable of analyzing and executing an early retirement plan independently, others may benefit from talking through their plan with a professional. A financial professional can help you further fine‑tune your strategy by educating you on reasonable parameters for everything from your desired retirement age and annual spending goal to your savings rate requirement and return expectations.
From there, your advisor can help you understand options and trade‑offs, weigh the pros and cons of any planning choices, and determine which actions would have the greatest positive impact on your plan. Perhaps most importantly, a trusted advisor can assist you with implementing the strategy and hold you accountable for making (and then sustaining) the changes you enact.
Whether spending cuts are needed to boost your savings rate, or you just want to minimize your expenses and spend more mindfully, here are some of the many ways you might rethink and restructure your spending:
Redirect any planned or unplanned cash flow increases automatically to investments. If you pay off a car or student loan or cut an expense or if your child transfers from a private to a public school, direct any cash flow savings immediately via automatic investment to an account earmarked for retirement. The key is to redirect those funds right away, so you never grow accustomed to spending them.
Reduce housing‑related expenses. Housing makes up the largest share of most family budgets (~30%). Although none of the options for lowering housing costs are easy or sacrifice‑free, any cut in that area could free up a great deal of additional savings capacity and may be worth considering.
Avoid lifestyle creep. Just because you make more doesn’t mean you need to spend more. Take that commission, that bonus, that pay increase due to a promotion, or that annual raise and automatically direct it to your investments.
When it comes to vehicle purchases, choose safety and affordability over luxury and novelty. The simple act of buying an affordable, good-quality new or used car and redirecting the higher car payment you would have assumed to investments could be more impactful than you think. If your current car payment is particularly high, don’t be afraid to explore selling the car and purchasing a more affordable one.
Competitively price essential expenses regularly. The cost of ongoing expenses such as insurance premiums, bundled cable/internet packages, utility or cell phone bills, and gym memberships can often be lowered with a bit of online research and a few phone calls. This may require time and patience but could yield meaningful monetary results.
For more cost‑cutting ideas, see “Need to Boost Your Retirement Savings? Spend Less to Save More.”
Depending on your income, a higher savings rate will likely require you to save beyond your 401(k), which has an annual contribution limit of $23,000 if under age 50 in 2024.2 Additionally, you’ll probably need to use your investments to supplement or fully provide your income prior to age 59½. Withdrawals from pretax individual retirement account (IRA) or 401(k) savings are generally taxed as ordinary income and assessed a 10% penalty if accessed prior to age 59½, unless an exception applies.
So having other account types available with more favorable tax‑free or capital gains tax treatment and no penalty exposure is often critical to fully realizing early financial independence. Here are some common account types available for optimizing your retirement savings diversification strategy.
For individuals with significantly higher income and savings capacity, the mega backdoor Roth option can help you to further maximize tax‑advantaged savings through your 401(k). While $23,000 is the 2024 limit for employee pretax and Roth 401k deferrals,8 some plans offer the option to contribute additional after‑tax dollars (up to the IRS annual plan contribution limit) and then convert those funds immediately within the plan to Roth. The 2024 plan contribution limit for combined employer and employee deferrals is $69,000.9To take full advantage of the mega backdoor Roth, your plan must:
Also, remember that plan guidelines may apply for actions such as in‑service rollovers. You might not be permitted to roll-over only after‑tax assets to Roth. Your plan may require a prorated rollover of all sources, so just be sure to understand your plan guidelines before proceeding.
Once you’ve determined an appropriate strategy for diversifying the tax treatment of your savings, automate your plan as much as possible.
The more you can automate your savings and investment plan, the likelier you’ll be to stick to it.
Of course, in addition to saving aggressively and getting accustomed to living on less, you’ll want to consider other ways of bridging the income and expense gaps when retiring earlier.
Planning to assume part‑time or full‑time work in retirement or setting up a “side hustle” can provide many benefits, both personal and financial. In some cases, it can come with health care benefits and access to a savings plan. It can also provide additional cash flow for discretionary spending and allow for the deferral of larger withdrawals from your investment portfolio. Alternative income streams, such as rental income from real estate, can also help to improve cash flow and reduce pressure on your investments. If anything, these complementary income sources can help you set extra cash aside for when you eventually transition from financial independence to full‑time retirement.
As mentioned previously, having a carefully constructed budget with the capacity to absorb increased out‑of‑pocket health care costs will prove crucial in the early years of retirement.
Social Security benefits are based on your highest 35 years of earnings. Therefore, while retiring early may prevent you from meaningfully boosting your average 35, any additional years of part‑time work can help by reducing the number of zero‑income years factored into your benefit calculation. Regardless of your benefit base, waiting to collect will lead to higher benefits due to deferral credits. Generally, the longer you can hold off on collecting your benefits, the greater your Social Security income will be.
Though much less commonly available now, for decades, defined benefit pension plan access and early availability was a primary driver of early retirement for public and private sector workers alike. If you have a pension, make sure to understand eligibility rules and how much you could receive based on your service and timing of claiming.
As you get closer to retirement, consider setting aside a couple years of expenses in cash so you can minimize the risk of being forced to sell your investments when they’re down.
Adaptability is crucial to any retirement plan, especially an early one. Being prepared to pare back on discretionary spending can help to ensure that you don’t spend down your assets too quickly. Diversifying the tax treatment of your savings, maintaining a proper asset allocation with a healthy mix of growth and income‑oriented investments, and building a substantial short‑term cash cushion are also key contributors to achieving financial independence.
In summary, key requirements for early retirement are the willingness and capacity to sustain an increased savings rate and the discipline to spend mindfully and live on less. An invisible benefit to reassessing your priorities and reconfiguring your budget to accommodate a higher savings rate is that you will train yourself to make do, and enjoy the lifestyle benefits that money can’t buy—distraction‑free time with friends and family, a peaceful morning with a good book, a mid‑afternoon stroll, or a free concert or yoga session at a local park. Regardless of how you define financial independence, discipline and thoughtful planning now can lead to invaluable benefits later.
1 IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Retirement Income Calculator regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.
The information provided in this tool is for general and educational purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, tax or investment advice. This tool allows you to explore hypothetical future scenarios to test your savings strategy. The assumptions and methodology are not tailored to the needs of any specific investor. Results are intended as an aid, are not guaranteed, and should not be your only source of information when making financial decisions. Please consult your tax or financial professional regarding questions specific to your situation. Other T. Rowe Price educational tools or advice services use different assumptions and methods and may yield different results.
For details on this and other assumptions, please read our Methodology and Assumptions here: www.troweprice.com/content/dam/iinvestor/Forms/retirement-income-calculator-methodology.pdf
2 The 2024 401(k) employee contribution limit is $30,500 for participants age 50 or older.
3 Generally, to receive Roth earnings tax‑free, you must be over age 59½ and have had the Roth established for at least 5 years.
4 Pretax contributions and earnings and Roth or after‑tax earnings may be subject to ordinary income tax.
5 The 2024 HSA contribution limit is $4,150 for individuals and $8,300 for families.
6 If used before age 65 for nonqualified purposes, income taxes and a 20% penalty is assessed.
7 The maximum Roth IRA contribution for 2024 is $7,000 for those under 50 and $8,000 if age 50 or older. To maximize Roth IRA contributions in 2024, your modified adjusted gross income must be less than $161,000 if single and $240,000 if married filing jointly.
8 $30,500 for participants age 50 or older in 2024.
9 $76,500 for participants age 50 or older in 2024.
Important Information
This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.
The views contained herein are those of the authors as of December 2023 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.
This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types, advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision. T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., its affiliates, and its associates do not provide legal or tax advice. Any tax‑related discussion contained in this website, including any attachments/links, is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding any tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing, or recommending to any other party any transaction or matter addressed herein. Please consult your independent legal counsel and/or tax professional regarding any legal or tax issues raised in this material.
Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.
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