markets & economy  | june 22, 2023

2023 Midyear Market Outlook Webinar: Finding the Signal Through the Noise

Watch a thought-provoking conversation between T. Rowe Price experts in which they provide in-depth analysis of the major investment themes impacting our world today.



Key Insights

  • Maintaining focus: Inflation, interest rates, and global challenges have dampened investor confidence. A keen eye is needed to help investors find opportunity.

  • Global economy: Some economic pessimism may be warranted this year, but will investors become too cautious?

  • Stocks: Corporate earnings are at risk, and that could spell trouble for higher-priced areas of the stock market. Where may investors be safest focusing their attention?

  • Bonds: Bonds could play an important role in the second half of 2023. How can you use them in your portfolio?

2023 Midyear Market Outlook: Finding the Signal Through the Noise

Hello, and thank you for joining us, for T. Rowe Price’s Mid-Year Market Outlook – Finding the Signal Through the Noise.

As we look forward to the rest of 2023, key themes for markets remain centered on inflation, monetary policy and the risk of recession. However, the macro signals are mixed with stock and bond markets pricing in different scenarios. In this environment, effective active investing is about distinguishing the signal from the noise, deciphering the useful information from random market fluctuations. This task will be especially critical in the coming months as sticky inflation, tighter financial conditions and fading economic growth challenge investors.

In today's conversation, we will explore macroeconomic themes, shaping market performance and importantly, what this could mean for your portfolios. The overarching topics are: Economic Resilience Tested, Bonds Are Back, and finally, a focus on earnings. My name is Ritu Vohora and I'm an investment specialist covering global capital markets, and my role is to provide our clients with a broad perspective into the views of our multi-asset, equity, and fixed income investors at T. Rowe Price. And with me in the studio today, I'm delighted to be joined by Arif Husain, who is head of International Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer, and Justin Thompson, head of International Equity and Chief Investment Officer. Welcome, Justin and Arif.

And also joining us, Sebastien Page, head of Global Multi-Asset and CIO. Sebastien is also the author of Beyond Diversification.

Thank you all for joining us today.

So now to kick off with our first theme, Economic Resilience Tested. Many economies have demonstrated remarkable resilience this year despite aggressive rate hikes and the removal of liquidity. Strong labor markets, China's reopening, softening inflation and expectations for an end to the Fed's hiking cycle have all helped support economic activity. However, stock markets appear disconnected from bond markets, with the latter taking a more bearish view that implies a pending recession.

Read the Full Transcript (PDF)

Investment Risks

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.

Fixed income investing includes interest rate risk and credit risk. When interest rates rise, bond values generally fall. Investments in high yield bonds involve greater risk of price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher-rated debt.

Important Information

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

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Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

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Next Step

  • Discover the future we see for financial markets and how we’re investing to prepare for it in our 2023 Midyear Market Outlook Insights.

  • Contact a Financial Consultant at 1-800-401-1819.