asset allocation  |  september 27, 2022

Fed’s Inflation Fight Likely to Persist

Steady rise in cost of services clouds inflation outlook.

 

Key Insights

  • The cost of goods may be peaking, but the cost of services is steadily gaining momentum, which could be problematic for the inflation outlook.

  • In our view, the Fed’s inflation fight is far from over, and our Asset Allocation Committee remains underweight stocks relative to bonds.

Tim Murray, CFA

Capital Markets Strategist, Multi‑Asset Division

Despite a gloomy economic environment this year, equity markets enjoyed a period of very welcome optimism this summer. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index staged a strong rally from mid-June to mid-August, bolstered by hope that inflation was peaking, which in turn raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could pivot to a more dovish monetary policy stance. We believe this logic may be flawed and that expectations for a shift in Fed policy could be premature.

Overall, the cost of goods is showing signs of peaking. July 2022 inflation data showed that both food and energy costs have declined for two months in a row on a rolling 12-month basis (Figure 1). Commodity prices have also eased since the beginning of the year, and a forward-looking review of supply chains, inventory levels, and shipping costs supports a downward trend over the near term.

Component Parts of Inflation

(Fig. 1) Cost of goods may be peaking, but the cost of services has continued to increase

Component Parts of Inflation Bar Chart

January 1, 2019, to July 31, 2022
Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
*Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by consumers and is a widely used measure of inflation. 

However, the cost of services—which has played a relatively minor role in the inflation uptick so far—is steadily gaining momentum. Services inflation is typically problematic because it tends to be “sticky” (the upward trend is more gradual and persistent), and it is highly sensitive to wage inflation. This is concerning given that sustained labor shortages are driving up labor costs (Figure 2).

In our view, the Fed’s fight with inflation is far from over, given the upward pressure on prices from services inflation. Hawkish interest rate policy will likely continue to be a headwind for the economy and equity markets, as we believe the Fed will need to see a meaningful decline in inflation from current levels before changing course. As a result, our Asset Allocation Committee remains cautious and is maintaining an underweight allocation to stocks relative to bonds.

No Relief From Wage Inflation

(Fig. 2) Ratio of job openings vs. unemployed workers is remarkably high relative to the historical average and has driven up employment costs 

No Relief From Wage Inflation Line Graph

January 2008 to July 2022
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

Important Information

This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.

The views contained herein are those of the authors as of September 2022 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types, advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy. Actual future outcomes may differ materially from any forward-looking statements made.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.

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