Six Risks to the Coronavirus Recovery

Nikolaj Schmidt, Chief Global Economist

We believe there are six key risks the global economic recovery: a second wave of coronavirus; a flare-up in US-China tensions; a wave of defaults in the US non-financial corporate sector; fiscal consolidation in developed markets; a fiscal crisis in emerging markets; and another eurozone sovereign debt crisis. 

Key Insights

  • Once the initial post-lockdown economic surge has abated, the global economy faces six key risks to its long-term recovery
  • These include a second wave of the coronavirus, deteriorating US-China relations and defaults in the US no-financial corporate sector 
  • Other risks include fiscal consolidation in developed markets, a fiscal crisis in emerging markets and another eurozone debt crisis

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