12 April 2021 / ASSET ALLOCATION VIEWPOINT
A Shift Toward Value
Key Insights
- As the rollout of coronavirus vaccines paves the way to normalization, U.S. and global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 may potentially be the strongest in decades.
- Investors may want to consider opportunities in asset classes such as value stocks, which could benefit from strong economic growth.
A post‑pandemic economic recovery is underway, and millions of vaccines are being administered globally every day. The U.S. population is rapidly gaining protection against the coronavirus, and vaccination campaigns in a number of other countries, while slower, appear to be progressing in a positive direction.
As we move toward normalization—buoyed by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus—many economists expect U.S. and global GDP growth in 2021 to be the strongest in decades. We think investors may want to consider opportunities in segments likely to benefit from economic growth, such as small‑cap and value stocks, with greater emphasis on the latter group.
In the initial phase of the pandemic, small‑cap and value stocks both underperformed, weighed down by lockdown restrictions and economic uncertainty. However, as optimism recovered, small‑cap stocks rebounded much faster than value stocks and have now considerably outpaced large‑cap stocks over the course of the pandemic.
Value stocks, on the other hand, have only begun to regain the ground they lost relative to growth in 2020. In recent years, value underperformance has been heavily influenced by falling interest rates, which created a headwind for financial stocks—a significant component of the value universe. Recently, however, the environment appears to have turned more supportive, and value stocks could be boosted by rising interest rates, higher inflation, and positive economic growth.
Therefore, while both small‑cap and value stocks could likely benefit if economic growth accelerates, in our view, value stocks may offer investors more upside potential over the coming year.
Value Stocks Could Offer More Upside Potential
The tide may be turning for value stocks
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
As of February 18, 2020, to March 29, 2021 (left chart), December 31, 2018, to March 29, 2021 (right chart).
Sources: Russell and T. Rowe Price analysis using data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved (see Additional Disclosures).
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, and prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.
The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.
Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.
The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.
It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.
Canada—Issued in Canada by T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc.’s investment management services are only available to Accredited Investors as defined under National Instrument 45-106. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. enters into written delegation agreements with affiliates to provide investment management services.
© 2021 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.
13 April 2021 / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
Tim Murray is a capital market strategist in the Multi-Asset Division. Tim is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
