We are positive on the outlook for Chinese equities in 2021 for three key reasons. First, China is expected to lead the recovery of Asia Pacific economies thanks to successful early control of the virus as many nations still struggle to emerge from the pandemic. Vaccine rollouts as well as the promotion of vaccine passports will likely accelerate the reopening of borders, providing a strong case for a pickup in economic activities. Second, the World Bank forecasts China's economy to expand by more than 8% in 2021, compared with 2.3% in the previous year, implying rapid expansion from multiple growth engines Third, despite being the world's second-largest economy, Chinese equities are still underrepresented in global indices. The equity market is poised to gain as the index weightings gradually normalize.

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In our view, China has done enough to successfully reflate its own economy. One consequence of China's early recovery is that expectations of fresh stimulus have been dampened. At the same time, there is no sign that the government will tighten policy prematurely. Rather, it appears to be taking a "wait and see" approach that could prevail for the next couple of quarters.

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The durability of the recovery in 2021 will require a shift in the sources of growth toward the consumer, including those consumer services that suffered most from the pandemic. The prospects for consumer demand look good: Auto sales, a key gauge of consumer confidence, ended last year above 2019 levels. Successive holidays and consumer festivals saw improving consumer confidence and pent-up demand. Residential property has rebounded, supported by a recovery in household income.

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The positive fundamental outlook for Chinese equities in 2021 is even more attractive in relative terms given the still uncertain outlook for many other economies, both developed and emerging. We expect the consumer to play a bigger role in driving China's economic growth next year.