Skip to content

Outlook

Capital Market Assumptions

T. Rowe Price

The T. Rowe Price 5-Year Capital Market Assumptions were calculated based on data as of December 31, 2019. While they do include forecasts for bull and bear market scenarios, they do not reflect the impact of Covid-19 on the global capital markets and world economy starting in January 2020.

CMAs are best understood as forecasts for the central tendency of forward returns. They do not seek to predict actual or realized returns, as there is bound to be material variation around this central tendency for any given historical or future period. For this reason, T. Rowe Price's approach to portfolio construction relies on the use of multiple methods of optimization and robustness checks.

Current tactical positioning in our Multi-Asset strategies is available in our Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints monthly publication.

2020 Capital Market Assumptions

Key Risks and Important Information

Key Risks

Forecasts are based on subjective estimates about market environments that may never occur. Some of the factors that could impact these forecasts include, but are not limited to:

Political and economic conditions
Performance of financial markets
Interest rate levels
Changes to laws or regulations

Investments in equities are subject to the volatility inherent in equity investing, and their value may fluctuate more than investing in income-oriented securities. Certain asset classes are subject to sector concentration risk and are more susceptible to developments affecting those sectors than broader classes. Investment in small companies involves greater risk than is customarily associated with larger companies, since small companies often have limited product lines, markets, or financial resources. Transactions in securities denominated in foreign currencies are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates, which may affect the value of an investment. Debt securities could suffer an adverse change in financial condition due to a ratings downgrade or default, which may affect the value of an investment. Investments in high yield involve a higher element of risk. Investments in less developed regions can be more volatile than other, more developed markets due to changes in market, political, and economic conditions. Investments are less liquid than those that trade on more established markets.

Additional Disclosures

Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). BARCLAYS® is a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, “Barclays”), used under license. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors, including Barclays, own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.

MSCI and its affiliates and third party sources and providers (collectively, “MSCI”) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. Historical MSCI data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.

Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission. The index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright © 2020, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. S&P Copyright © 2020, S&P Global Market Intelligence (and its affiliates, as applicable). Reproduction of S&P ASX, GSCI, Real Assets and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Performing Loan Indexes in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P). None of S&P, its affiliates, or their suppliers guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall S&P, its affiliates, or any of their suppliers be liable for any damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of S&P information.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2020. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company that owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data, and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor, or endorse the content of this communication.

Important Information

T. Rowe Price Capital Market Assumptions: The information presented herein is shown for illustrative, informational purposes only. Forecasts are based on subjective estimates about market environments that may never occur. This material does not reflect the actual returns of any portfolio/strategy and dis not indicative of future results. The historical returns used as a basis for this analysis are based on information gathered by T. Rowe Price and from third-party sources and have not been independently verified. The asset classes referenced in our capital market assumptions are represented by broad-based indices, which have been selected because they are well known and are easily recognizable by investors. Indices have limitations due to materially different characteristics from an actual investment portfolio in terms of security holdings, sector weightings, volatility, and asset allocation. Therefore, returns and volatility of a portfolio may differ from those of the index. Management fees, transaction costs, taxes, and potential expenses are not considered and would reduce returns. Expected returns for each asset class can be conditional on economic scenarios; in the event a particular scenario comes to pass, actual returns could be significantly higher or lower than forecast.

This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources. accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only. The views and opinions stated in this commentary are those of the portfolio managers listed as of the date indicated. These views and opinions are subject to change based on market or other conditions and may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates. Actual market and investment results may differ materially from expectations. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

This material is only for investment professionals that are eligible to access the T. Rowe Price Asia Regional Institutional Website. Not for further distribution.

© 2020 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

202005-1181904

Download

Audience for the document: Share Class: Language of the document:
Download Cancel

Download

Share Class: Language of the document:
Download Cancel
Sign in or register to view more information.
Once registered, you'll be able to start subscribing.

By clicking the Continue button, I acknowledge that I have read and accepted the Privacy Notice

Continue Back

Change Details

If you need to change your email address please contact us.
Subscriptions
OK
You are ready to start subscribing.
Get started by going to our products or insights section to follow what you're interested in.

Products Insights

GIPS® Information

T. Rowe Price ("TRP") claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. T. Rowe Price has been independently verified for the twenty four-year period ended June 30, 2020, by KPMG LLP. The verification report is available upon request. A firm that claims compliance with the GIPS standards must establish policies and procedures for complying with all the applicable requirements of the GIPS standards. Verification provides assurance on whether the firm’s policies and procedures related to composite and pooled fund maintenance, as well as the calculation, presentation, and distribution of performance, have been designed in compliance with the GIPS standards and have been implemented on a firm-wide basis. Verification does not provide assurance on the accuracy of any specific performance report.

TRP is a U.S. investment management firm with various investment advisers registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority, and other regulatory bodies in various countries and holds itself out as such to potential clients for GIPS purposes. TRP further defines itself under GIPS as a discretionary investment manager providing services primarily to institutional clients with regard to various mandates, which include U.S, international, and global strategies but excluding the services of the Private Asset Management group.

A complete list and description of all of the Firm's composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS® standards are available upon request. Additional information regarding the firm's policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance results is available upon request

Other Literature

You have successfully subscribed.

Notify me by email when
regular data and commentary is available
exceptional commentary is available
new articles become available

Thank you for your continued interest