July 2024, From the Field -
Municipal bonds offer a compelling fixed income option for investors today. Generally, municipals can add diversification and provide a source of income to a portfolio, and they tend to be resilient in shifting market conditions.
Here are five reasons why we’re excited about the opportunity in municipal bonds today.
First, the level of interest rates in the U.S.
We’ve been in a higher-for-longer rate environment for some time now, and rates remain very attractive for municipal bonds.
Second, credit quality for municipal bonds remains strong relative to most other fixed income segments.
We remain confident in the overall municipal credit quality, based in part on improved fiscal management after the global financial crisis and federal pandemic support. An active approach remains essential to identify opportunities and risks within individual bonds.
Third, the tax impact.
In nearly every economic environment, investors are concerned about taxes. And due to their preferential tax treatment, municipal bonds have the power to be one of the most impactful tools in building a tax-efficient portfolio.
Fourth, the potential for lower rates ahead.
While we believe rates will stay higher for longer—and we aren’t predicting timing—we think we may be approaching the top of the rate cycle. When rates do come down, municipals may provide additional price appreciation as rates decline. Remember, bond yields and prices have an inverse relationship.
And finally, pockets of opportunity.
We believe municipals can play a key role in a diversified portfolio, and investors can diversify within the asset class in multiple ways. An active approach is key to navigating shifting conditions ahead.
Many investors turn to municipal bonds to add diversification to their portfolio, provide a source of income, and minimize state and federal tax liability. Municipal bonds have also proved resilient in past periods of economic turmoil and should remain a compelling fixed income option for investors.
To combat inflation and slow economic growth, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising the federal funds target rate in 2022, and this continued through July 2023. As a result, rates have increased to pre-global financial crisis1 levels. With this higher-for-longer narrative, the yield generated by municipal bonds, in our opinion, will remain attractive (Fig. 1).
The credit quality of municipal bonds historically has been strong relative to most other fixed income segments with credit risk, and this appears to hold true for 2024 (Fig. 2). Our team remains confident in the overall enduring credit quality of municipal obligors for two primary reasons:
Better fiscal management post-global financial crisis. Since the global financial crisis, states and local municipalities appear to have implemented more fiscally responsible policies. Many states built their reserves via growth in tax revenues and federal aid. These efforts have helped rebuild the trust of investors in the ability of municipal issuers to remain stable and financially healthy. This trust in credit quality should play an integral role in supporting the long-term performance of municipal bonds.
Coronavirus pandemic funds strengthened many municipal bond issuers. Pandemic‑era funding bolstered states, local municipalities, and many related municipal debt issuers, such as hospitals and airports. Many local governments used the money responsibly to shore up important government‑funded programs like state pensions and school systems. Many other municipal issuers have also seen balance sheet improvements due to pandemic-era funding.
From April 1, 2004, to April 30, 2024
Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.
Index shown is the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. For illustrative purposes only. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Yield to worst (YTW) represents the minimum yield an investor could receive on a bond, assuming the issuer does not default.
In 2024, governments and other municipal issuers have continued to benefit from the infusion of funding experienced during the onset of the pandemic. This puts a number of muni bond issuers in better fiscal positions than before the pandemic.
In nearly every economic environment, taxes consistently have been a top concern for investors. Due to their preferential tax treatment, municipal bonds have the power to be one of the most impactful tools in building a tax-efficient portfolio.
When moving taxable bond allocations into municipal bonds, investors should consider the tax benefits of munis and how those may result in higher after-tax yield potential (Fig. 3). Taxable bonds, such as corporate bonds, may have a higher pretax yield than a muni bond, but it’s important for investors to consider the tax obligations of that bond. Only after accounting for taxes on the taxable bond can investors accurately compare its yield with that on a tax-exempt bond.
From January 31, 2000, through March 31, 2024. Muni data are as of April 1, 2024.
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and J.P. Morgan. See Additional Disclosures.
The default rate is the percentage of issuers that did not make scheduled payments of interest or principal.
The Muni High Yield Default is based on the Bloomberg Muni High Yield Index. The Corporate High Yield Default is based on research conducted by J.P. Morgan.
As of April 30, 2024.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
The credit ratings are based on methodology of Bloomberg using S&P and Moody’s ratings. A rating of “AAA” represents the highest-rated investment-grade rating, and a rating of “A” represents the second-lowest investment-grade rating. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
Yield shown in yield to worst. Yields are subject to change.
To calculate a municipal bond’s taxable equivalent yield, divide the yield by the quantity of 1.00, minus the federal tax rate, expressed as a decimal.
TEY assumes a 40% tax rate.
Our current view is that taxes are likely going to stay where they are or possibly increase based on the federal deficit.
While we believe rates will likely stay higher for longer, we do believe we are close to the top of the rate cycle. Going forward, while we are not predicting the timing, it is likely we will see rates come down. Whenever the Fed begins cutting rates, municipal bonds could provide additional price appreciation as rates decline (bond yields and prices move in opposite directions). We view the yield as the base for returns in fixed income, but in this scenario, an investor could see price appreciation on top of the yield.
“History indicates a favorable outlook for municipal bonds as the Fed takes action in 2024.”
Dawn Mueller, Portfolio Specialist
History indicates a favorable outlook for municipal bonds as the Fed takes action in 2024.
Investors seeking exposure to municipal bonds can diversify within the asset class by geography, maturity, coupon level, and issuer (state, city, county). Additionally, by using a disciplined investment process, investors can take advantage of weakness in the markets to add to attractive investments at cheaper prices.
The market continues to show volatility amid persistent inflation, a U.S. election cycle, and expected Fed easing. While we believe munis can play a key role in a diversified portfolio, an active approach is necessary to navigate shifting conditions ahead.
Dawn Mueller
Portfolio Specialist, Fixed Income
Dawn Mueller is a portfolio specialist in the Fixed Income Division. She supports the municipal bond strategies, working closely with clients, prospects, and consultants. Dawn is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc., and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc.
1The global financial crisis occurred between mid-2007 and early 2009.
Additional Disclosures
“Bloomberg®” and Bloomberg Indices are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by T. Rowe Price. Bloomberg is not affiliated with T. Rowe Price, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend this product. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to this product.
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission. The index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright © 2024, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.
The views contained herein are those of the authors as of July 2024 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.
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Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy. Actual future outcomes may differ materially from any estimates or forward-looking statements made.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. Fixed‑income securities are subject to credit risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and interest‑rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Investments in high‑yield bonds involve greater risk of price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher‑rated debt securities. Income from municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes and the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.
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