Venezuela: Implications for Markets
January 2026, In the Spotlight
What happened?
- On Saturday, January 3, the U.S. carried out military action in Venezuela that resulted in the capture and removal of the country’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores.
- Venezuela’s new leader is Delcy Rodriguez, who was formerly Maduro’s vice president. However, U.S. president Donald Trump said that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela until there is a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” of power in the country.
- Maduro and his wife are being held in New York, where they will face criminal charges related to what prosecutors allege is their participation in a conspiracy to import illegal drugs into the U.S.
- The capture of Maduro followed months of U.S. pressure on Venezuela. In mid-December, President Trump wrote in a social media post that he had ordered a “total and complete blockade of oil tankers travelling to and from Venezuela. He also demanded that Venezuela “return to the United States all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.”
What are the initial market implications?
- Near term, oil market impacts appear limited, as production and export constraints remain subject to U.S. sanctions and enforcement decisions, which could evolve. Venezuela currently produces under 1 million barrels of oil per day1, which is less than 1% of the global output.
- Global stock markets began the week strongly as demand for tech stocks remained high and the markets seemed unperturbed by the U.S.’s actions in Venezuela.
What will markets be monitoring over the longer term?
- Over the longer term, Venezuela’s oil sector would require significant capital, infrastructure rebuilding, and policy clarity before any meaningful changes in output could occur. According to OPEC, Venezuela has around 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves – among the largest in the world2.
- From a fixed income perspective, we are positive on Latin America as a region, which represents around 36% of the main emerging market bond index3. This is supported by political developments, such as Argentina’s election outcome and multilateral engagement with the U.S., and Mexico announcing increasing state support for quasi-sovereign Petroleos Mexicanos, the state energy company. Looking ahead, it will be important to watch elections taking place this year as any signs of reformist outcomes could also be positive for the region.
How is T. Rowe Price responding?
- The situation continues to develop and there remain a number of uncertainties, including potential changes to U.S. sanctions policy regarding PDVSA and the Government of Venezuela. As noted in our Global Market Outlook for 2026, we anticipate geopolitical uncertainty to remain a feature of markets in the year ahead. We continue to monitor this current development and potential implications.
What's ahead?
Gain valuable perspective on the markets and what’s ahead.
1 International Energy Agency Oil Market Report, December 2025
2 2025 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin published, July 2025
3 The JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index. Share as of 31 December 2025 was 35.7%.
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