2026 Midyear Market Outlook: Five shifts reshaping markets

Learn more about the shifts reshaping markets

Investment Risks:

Active investing may have higher costs than passive investing and may underperform the broad market or passive peers with similar objectives. Each person’s investing situation and circumstances differ. Investors should take all considerations into account before investing.

International investments can be riskier than U.S. investments due to the adverse effects of currency exchange rates, differences in market structure and liquidity, as well as specific country, regional, and economic developments. The risks of international investing are heightened for investments in emerging market and frontier market countries. Emerging and frontier market countries tend to have economic structures that are less diverse and mature, and political systems that are less stable, than those of developed market countries.

Commodities are subject to increased risks such as higher price volatility, geopolitical, and other risks. Commodity prices can be subject to extreme volatility and significant price swings.

Inflation‑linked bonds (Treasury inflation protected securities in the U.S.): In periods of no or low inflation, other types of bonds, such as US Treasury bonds, may perform better than Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Investing in technology stocks entails specific risks, including the potential for wide variations in performance and usually wide price swings, up and down. Technology companies can be affected by, among other things, intense competition, government regulation, earnings disappointments, dependency on patent protection, and rapid obsolescence of products and services due to technological innovations or changing consumer preferences.

Fixed income securities are subject to credit risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and interest rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Investments in high yield bonds involve greater risk of price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher-rated debt securities. Investments in bank loans may at times become difficult.

Because of the cyclical nature of natural resource companies, their stock prices and rates of earnings growth may follow an irregular path.

The value approach to investing carries the risk that the market will not recognize a security’s intrinsic value for a long time or that a stock judged to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced. Growth stocks are subject to the volatility inherent in common stock investing, and their share price may fluctuate more than that of income‑oriented stocks.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any specific investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

T. Rowe Price cautions that economic estimates and forward‑looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual outcomes could differ materially from those anticipated in estimates and forward‑looking statements, and future results could differ materially from any historical performance. The information presented herein is shown for illustrative, informational purposes only. Any historical data used as a basis for this analysis are based on information gathered by T. Rowe Price and from third‑party sources and have not been independently verified. Forward‑looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and T. Rowe Price assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward‑looking statements.

Important Information

This material is being furnished for informational and/or marketing purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, advice, or solicitation to sell or buy any security.

Prospective investors should seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services.

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.

Information presented has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness. The views contained herein are those of the author(s), are as of June 2026, are subject to change, and may differ from the views of other T. Rowe Price Group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only. Actual future outcomes may differ materially from any estimates or forward‑looking statements provided.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

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