Markets & Economy

2019 Midyear Market Outlook

June 20, 2019
Recession risks appear limited in the major markets. However, widening trade disputes have created notable downside risks.

Key Points

  • While challenges to global economic expansion are evident in slower earnings growth, the risk of a recession in major markets appears limited.
  • Widening trade disputes and populist politics have created notable downside risks, which could endanger hopes for an earnings reacceleration in late 2019.
  • Monetary expectations have shifted dramatically since the beginning of the year, with the Federal Reserve now seen as likely to cut interest rates.
  • Secular disruption continues to favor growth and the technology sector, but investors are becoming more cautious and some established firms are fighting back.

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