Monthly Market Review

February 2020

Monthly Market Review

U.S. Stock Market

Stocks fell sharply as fears over the COVID‑19 coronavirus outbreak caused steep declines over the last six trading days of the month. All the major indexes slipped into correction territory, or down over 10% from the highs they established as late as February 20. As was widely reported, the S&P 500 Index suffered its fastest correction on record. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq Composite Index held up best, while the narrowly focused Dow Jones Industrial Average fared worst. Within the S&P 500, communication services and real estate shares proved the most resilient, while plunging oil prices drove energy stocks to nearly a 15% decline in total return terms, which includes dividends. Trading volumes and volatility surged in the sell‑off late in the month, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) hitting levels not seen since the financial crisis in 2008–2009.

Virus Spreading Beyond China Marks Watershed for Markets

The COVID‑19 outbreak loomed large over Wall Street throughout February, but investors began the month seemingly convinced that it would remain largely confined within China. Reports that the rate of increase in new cases in China appeared to be moderating seemed to support sentiment, as did news of mass quarantines and other aggressive containment actions by Chinese officials. Investors also seemed encouraged by news of stimulus measures from the Chinese central bank, including cutting interest rates and injecting liquidity into the financial system.

Evidence that the virus might be transitioning into a global pandemic proved a watershed for the markets, however. Stocks began falling sharply on February 21, following reports of a widespread outbreak in South Korea. Selling accelerated the following week on news of large outbreaks in Iran and Italy, along with reports of scattered infections in dozens of countries. News of the first infections in the U.S. without any apparent direct connection to China seemed to weigh particularly heavy on sentiment, as did reports of Apple and other large companies reducing guidance as a result of the outbreak. As the declines continued, T. Rowe Price traders also observed the impact of systematic selling by algorithm‑driven strategies.

Total Returns

  February Year-to-Date
Dow Jones Industrial Average

‑9.75%

-10.55%

S&P 500 Index

-8.23

-8.27

Nasdaq Composite Index

-6.38

-4.52

S&P MidCap 400 Index

-9.49

-11.86

Russell 2000 Index

-8.42

-11.36

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: Returns are for the periods ended February 29, 2020. The returns include dividends based on data supplied by third‑party provider RIMES and compiled by T. Rowe Price, except for the Nasdaq Composite Index, whose return is principal only.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s, LSE Group. See Additional Disclosures.

Investors Await Clarity on Policy Response

Investors may have also been disappointed over the lack of clarity regarding a policy response from either the White House or the Federal Reserve. Stock prices reached their nadir on Friday morning, February 28, after acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney acknowledged that schools might have to be closed, contradicting assertions from President Donald Trump, Director of the National Economic Council Larry Kudlow, and other officials that the virus was largely contained. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard seemed to contribute to a sell‑off in the futures market when he said in a statement that the Fed’s current stance was “in a good position” and that the “baseline case” was for no change in rates.

Markets recovered somewhat in the final trading hours of the month, after reports emerged that the White House was considering another tax cut to spur growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also issued a statement acknowledging that the outbreak was “posing evolving risks” while promising that the Fed would “use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.” Federal funds futures as tracked by CME Group ended the month pricing in a 100% chance of a cut in the federal funds rate by the Fed’s next meeting in March, with the likelihood of at least a full percentage point of cuts by the end of the year. (The Fed announced a half‑point rate cut on the morning of March 3.)

Current Economic Signals Remain Generally Positive

Even as investors braced for a slowdown, many recent economic signals remained positive. Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 225,000 in January, well above estimates. Average hourly earnings also increased at a healthy pace, and the labor participation rate picked up as the tight job market encouraged more Americans to reenter the workforce. Personal incomes rose the most in nearly a year in January while retail sales increased at a solid pace. Even the beleaguered manufacturing sector appeared to be picking up steam, with factory activity in January expanding for the first time since July, while business spending on non‑defense goods rose sharply. Housing signals were also positive, with building permits reaching a 13‑year high.

The corporate earnings season also rounded out on a somewhat better note than anticipated, which seemed to help fuel the market’s rally before it was undone by virus fears. According to FactSet, overall earnings for the S&P 500 rose by 0.9% on a year‑over‑year basis in the fourth quarter of 2019, marking the first rise since late 2018. Results would have been stronger if not for a 44% (year‑over‑year) plunge in energy sector profits.

Economic Acceleration May Be Delayed Rather Than Canceled

The eventual course of the COVID‑19 outbreak and its impact on the global economy remain highly uncertain, and the serious challenge it poses to some companies and sectors should not be discounted. T. Rowe Price’s economists, investment managers, and industry analysts—some of whom have medical or scientific backgrounds—are carefully monitoring developments from our global offices. While the virus is likely to take a toll on economic activity in the first half of the year, abundant global liquidity and the strong likelihood of a forceful global policy response mean that there is a good chance economic acceleration is only delayed rather than canceled. We are also mindful that past periods of market upheaval have presented opportunities for those willing to remain patient and focus on the long‑term potential of well‑positioned companies.

The specific securities identified and described are for informational purposes only and do not represent recommendations.


Additional Disclosures

Copyright 2020 FactSet. All Rights Reserved.

J.P. Morgan. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright © 2020, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2020. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. “Russell®” is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

The S&P 500 Index and S&P MidCap 400 Index are products of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, or its affiliates (“SPDJI”) and have been licensed for use by T. Rowe Price. Standard & Poor’s® and S&P® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a division of S&P Global (“S&P”); Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (“Dow Jones”); T. Rowe Price is not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the S&P 500 Index and S&P MidCap 400 Index.


Important Information

This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.

The views contained herein are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Investors will need to consider their own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.

T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., distributor, and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., investment advisor.

© 2020 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

202003‑1104175

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GIPS® Information

T. Rowe Price ("TRP") claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). TRP has been independently verified for the twenty one- year period ended June 30, 2017 by KPMG LLP. The verification report is available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation.

TRP is a U.S. investment management firm with various investment advisers registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority, and other regulatory bodies in various countries and holds itself out as such to potential clients for GIPS purposes. TRP further defines itself under GIPS as a discretionary investment manager providing services primarily to institutional clients with regard to various mandates, which include U.S, international, and global strategies but excluding the services of the Private Asset Management group.

A complete list and description of all of the Firm's composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS® standards are available upon request. Additional information regarding the firm's policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance results is available upon request

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