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Pension Curve Insider: LDI Solutions August Monthly Recap

Aaron Stonacek, ASA, CFA, Solutions Analyst
Justin Harvey, Solutions Strategist for Multi-Asset Solutions

Monthly Recap

Marked-to-market discount rates nudged down in July as short Treasuries followed the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The belly of the curve ticked up around 10 bps while the long end stayed mostly level. Discount rates generated using the AA-rated spot and top-yielding curves fell 4 basis points apiece. Investment grade spreads reversed course and came in as much as 10 basis points. Discount rates based on the IRS curve, with its averaging methodology, also fell during the month.

Liability values continue the march upward, with discount rates now 71 basis points lower than a year ago using the AA-rated credit universe. Top yielding AA-rated bonds are 63 basis points lower than July 2018 and provide 30 basis points of additional yield relative to the broader market.

Turnover activity edged down in July, with just over 1% of the AA-rated index changing eligibility during the month. The month’s activity was split evenly between entering and exiting issues, totaling $7.5B in market value. Apple and TD Bank each contributed to the month’s exiting issues, accounting for about $3B. Total Capital International made up the month’s only new issues, totaling 3 bonds worth $3.2B.

Liability Impact

Yield Curve

Liability Value 7/31/19

Discount Rate
7/31/19

Liability Value 6/30/19

Discount Rate 6/30/19

Liability Value 12/31/18

Discount Rate 12/31/18

Accounting
Yield Curve

$10,773

3.47%

$10,713

3.51%

$9,695

4.24%

Top Yielding
Accounting Curve

$10,327

3.77% $10,264 3.81% $9,446 4.43%

IRS Yield Curve

$10,483

3.64% $10,358 3.73% $9,400 4.44%

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. IRS, and T. Rowe Price. Sample plan cash flows have a liability of $10,000 at 4.0% discount rate.

Accounting Curve

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. T. Rowe Price.

Issuer

Event

Curve Impact


Total Capital International

New Issues

(3 bonds)

Total Capital's issuance in July made up the entirety of the month's new entries into the AA-rated credit index. The total market value impact was about $3.2B with maturities ranging between 2025 and 2049. The impact on the discount curve was muted due to the relatively small market values of each tranche issued.

Apple

Exiting Issues

(2 bonds)

Apple made up about half of the month's exiting market value from the AA-rated index in July. The company saw 2 bonds totaling $2.2B move out of the index. Maturities for the two are slated for later in 2019 and 2020, so the resulting impact on the liability values was negligible due to extensive issuance at short durations and minimal discounting of short dated benefit payments.

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. T. Rowe Price.

 

New Issues

Other Bonds Entering

Downgrades

Other Bonds Exiting

July 2019

Count

3

0

0

4

Market Value ($M)

$3,269

$0

$0

$4,444

Market Value (%)

0.50%

0.00%

0.00%

0.67%

 
2019 YTD

Count

54

14

10

35

Market Value ($M)

$50,049

$20,222

$13,975

$34,969

Market Value (%)

7.65%

3.11%

2.14%

5.38%

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. T. Rowe Price.

Top Yielding Accounting Curve

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. T. Rowe Price.

IRS Curve

Sources: IRS and T. Rowe Price

Dates

AAA Corporate OAS (basis points)

AA Corporate OAS

A Corporate
OAS

June Monthly Average

61

56

91

July 1, 2019

56

51

82

July 15, 2019

55

50

82

July 31, 2019

60

46

78

July Monthly Average

57

49

81

Sources: Bloomberg Barclays. Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission. T. Rowe Price.

One-Year Rolling Returns and Tracking Error

 

July 2019 Return

YTD Total
Return

Annual Tracking Error Relative to Liability

Average Monthly
Return Difference from Liability

Hypothetical Sample Plan Liability

0.82%

13.34%

NA

NA

BBgBarc Aggregate

0.22%

6.36%

6.41%

1.40%

BBgBarc Long Credit

1.16%

16.78%

4.50%

0.92%

BBgBarc Long Gov/Credit

0.73%

14.31%

3.08%

0.63%

Hypothetical T. Rowe Price Custom Benchmark

0.33%

12.70%

2.01%

0.32%

Sources: Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., T. Rowe Price; Analysis by T. Rowe Price. Performance shown in graph and tables above shown from
February 1, 2005 through July 31, 2019.

Past performance cannot guarantee future results. Custom Benchmark returns do not reflect the deduction of management fees. Please refer to the disclosure at the end of the article for important additional information.

Copyright 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission.

Glossary

IRS Yield Curve: Plan sponsors of qualified defined benefit pension plans use this yield curve to determine funding requirements per IRS regulations. These funding requirements are disclosed on form 5500 annually. Yields on AAA, AA, and A corporate securities determine the yield curve for discounting purposes. The yield curve is not a marked-to-market curve representing any single date, but rather an average yield over the course of the entire month. For more information on the IRS methodology, please see treasury.gov/resource-center and irs.gov/Retirement-Plans.

Accounting Yield Curve: US GAAP requires pension plan sponsors to disclose pension obligations using “fixed-income debt securities that receive one of the two highest ratings given by a recognized ratings agency”. As a proxy for bonds useable for accounting purposes, we use the constituents of BBgBarc AA credit universe to develop the accounting yield curve shown. Please see fasb.org for more information.

Top Yielding Curve: Since the US GAAP rules allow the use of a fairly broad range of securities for accounting purposes, some plan sponsors use an optimized yield curve approach to value their pension liabilities on the disclosure dates. Bonds trading at higher yields than other bonds of similar maturity tend to be used for this purpose. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, T. Rowe Price developed a yield curve using the highest yielding bonds designed to meet SEC requirements at each node.

Annual Tracking Error Relative to Liability: Calculated as the standard deviation of return differences between a fixed income index and a set of cash flows discounted using the accounting yield curve. The liability return has two components: an interest cost component analogous to roll return on a bond, and yield change component analogous to price return on a bond. The table shows annualized ex-post tracking error.

Average Monthly Return Difference: Similar to the tracking error metric, this metric demonstrates how closely a fixed income benchmark tracks a set of liability returns. We calculate this measure by simply averaging the difference in returns over the period shown.

Sample Plan Liability: Pension plan sponsors must account for the cost of their retirement plan on their financial statements. The amount of this liability can fluctuate over time based on several factors, including benefits earned, benefits paid out, mortality experience, and most significantly, interest rates. The Sample Plan is intended to be a representative defined benefit pension plan and does not reflect the cash flows from any specific plan.

T. Rowe Price Custom Benchmark: An index of fixed income securities created using T. Rowe Price proprietary methodology that attempts to replicate interest rate exposures embedded in a pension plan’s liability structure.

To learn more, please visit troweprice.com

Important Information
This material is directed at institutional investors or advisors/consultants to institutional investors only and is not intended for distribution to retail investors. It has been prepared by T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. for informational purposes and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action. This material should not be redistributed, in whole or in part, without prior consent from T. Rowe Price. The views and information contained herein are as of 31 July 2019 and are subject to change without notice.

The illustrations presented are hypothetical and used to demonstrate capabilities. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and with the benefit of hindsight and are unlikely to be realized. The specific issuers and bond issues mentioned in this document had significant impact on liability curves calculated using BBgBarc index universes. The modeling used for plan and benchmark development has certain inherent limitations. Benchmark construction may not reflect all material economic and market factors that could have impacted implementation or weighting decisions if the modeled plan actually existed during the time period presented. Actual T. Rowe Price Custom Benchmark characteristics, including (among other things) yield, annualized return, liability-relative tracking error and average monthly returns difference relative to plan liability may differ substantially from the hypothetical scenario presented.

T.ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE and the bighorn sheep design are collectively and/or apart, trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. © 2019 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved.

201908-937584

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