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Countdown to Brexit—Three Weeks To Go

Prime Minister’s withdrawal deal could still find support.

Quentin S. Fitzsimmons, Portfolio Manager

The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29. Although this is less than a month away, a range of possible outcomes remain possible—although clarity has emerged in certain areas since last week.

In the second of a weekly series of updates, Quentin Fitzsimmons, fixed income portfolio manager and T. Rowe Price’s resident Brexit specialist, provides an overview of the current state of play. 

What Are the Current Scenarios?

The four primary scenarios are:

  1. Parliament agrees a modified version of the deal that the UK government has agreed with the EU and the UK leaves the bloc on March 29.

  2. The UK government fails to get a deal approved by Parliament and the UK exits the EU on March 29 without arrangements in place and with no transition period to enable business and people to prepare. UK trade with the EU would immediately be governed by World Trade Organization rules.

  3. The EU agrees to extend Article 50, the legislation that sets March 29 as the legally binding exit date from the EU, to give the UK government more time to get a deal approved by Parliament. This could potentially involve the UK electorate voting on the deal in a second referendum.

  4. Prime Minister Theresa May decides to call a snap election in a bid to increase the ruling Conservative Party’s majority and make it easier to push a deal through. An extension to Article 50 would be necessary in the event of a snap election being called.

Countdown to Brexit—Three Weeks To Go

Important Information
This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.

The views contained herein are those of the authors as of March 2019 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.

This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Investors will need to consider their own circumstances before making an investment decision.

Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.

T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., distributor, and T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc., investment advisor.

© 2019 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. Rowe Price, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

201903‑758319

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