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Fixed Income

The Long And Unwinding Road

At a time when global growth is already under close scrutiny, the threat of trade tariffs has returned. If this threat lingers, it could prompt central banks to become even more cautious this year.

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Global Fixed Income Team


In order to better meet inflation targets and achieve other objectives, the Federal Reserve has launched a review of its strategy, tools, and communications. Inflation has remained persistently below the Fed’s 2% target in recent years, and the Fed may consider a number of “makeup” strategies to lift inflation expectations.

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Alan Levenson
Chief U.S. Economist


In Federal Reserve tightening cycles from 1977 through 2006, a pause in rate hikes of longer than six months always led to a rate cut, not more increases. Our view is that the Fed will remain on hold at least until July, so this historical perspective leads us to anticipate that the central bank's next move will be a cut in interest rates.

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Steve Bartolini
Lead Portfolio Manager

Christopher Brown
Lead Portfolio Manager 


With several central banks poised to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve in tightening monetary policy and President Donald Trump’s trade wars showing no signs of abating, T. Rowe Price Portfolio Specialist Stephen Marsh recently asked two of our leading fixed income investors to share their views on the prospects for the global economy. 

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Kenneth Orchard
Co-portfolio Manager

Quentin Fitzsimmons
Senior Portfolio Manager 


Conventional wisdom is that U.S. monetary policy is currently somewhere between loose and neutral. In its August statement, the Federal Reserve removed the "accommodative" description of its monetary policy, which was initially interpreted as meaning that the Fed believed that it had reached a "neutral" stance. 

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Kenneth Orchard
Portfolio Manager


The U.S. Treasury yield curve—the spread between long- and short-term rates—has flattened sharply this year, raising questions and concerns about the implications of a flat or inverted yield curve for the economy and investing environment.

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Alan Levenson
Chief U.S. Economist


U.S. Treasuries have traditionally been regarded as the ultimate “flight to quality” asset, but it is unclear whether they will continue to be so in future. It is therefore possible that instead of relying on one asset to provide a “risk-free” element of their portfolio, investors will be forced to choose from a number of potential options or combine several different assets together to create a “lower risk” anchor.

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Arif Husain
Head of International Fixed Income


As global markets come to the end of a prolonged period of accommodative global central bank policies and suppressed volatility, we identify fixed income opportunities by looking globally to take advantage of divergence across regions. A selective approach to investing can open up additional opportunities created by temporary market dislocations.

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Mark Vaselkiv
Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income

Kenneth A. Orchard
Portfolio Manager/Analyst


The questions are coming up more frequently: Are we in a bear market in bonds? What will rising interest rates mean for fixed-income portfolios (not to mention equity portfolios)?

In this Q&A, Mark Vaselkiv and Samy Muaddi answer these questions and discuss where they are finding opportunities, as well as how fixed income can play an increasingly critical role in institutional asset owners' portfolios.

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Mark Vaselkiv
Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income

Samy Muaddi
Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager


We maintain a cautious outlook for the lira and Turkish assets in the postelection period. Although the central bank’s recent rate hikes and monetary simplification were positive steps, additional monetary tightening is needed, and the political priorities of the Erdogan government remain unclear.

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Peter Botoucharov
Emerging Market Credit Analyst 


Volatility could be set for a comeback, potentially hurting investors whose portfolios are highly correlated or who have adopted risk parity strategies. Given this, investors may find it beneficial to adopt a more active approach based on country and sector allocation and duration management.

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Arif Husain
Head of International Fixed Income


Deep local knowledge is an invaluable tool when investing in the debt markets of smaller, less developed countries. This has been shown in investments we have made over the past five to six years in Romanian and Serbian bonds, both of which offered high yields at the time but whose prospects we believed were stronger than their market prices suggested.

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Kenneth A. Orchard
Portfolio Manager/Analyst

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