Recently, our CIOs shared their investment outlooks for the second half of 2018. They discussed the global economic cycle, the path for interest rates, volatility expectations, government policy, and earnings and valuations, and more.
Moving into the second half of 2018, the global economic expansion appears intact, although momentum appears to be slowing in Europe and Japan. Earnings growth has been strong and underlying trends are positive, but peak levels likely were achieved in the first half of the year. Asset classes appear relatively expensive in most global regions, but higher Treasury yields have improved U.S. credit valuations in an absolute sense. Relatively tame inflation is enabling the U.S. Federal Reserve to pursue a moderate course of rate hikes, but U.S. dollar appreciation is creating headwinds for emerging markets. Worries about populist policies could contribute to market volatility. A trade war between the U.S. and China could do significant global economic damage. Technology giants have seen rapid earnings growth. We believe these companies can continue to lead the broad market, despite privacy concerns.
Head of Investments and Group Chief Investment Officer
Chief Investment Officer, Equity
Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income