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Policy Insights

The Rise of Green Bonds

Arif Husain, CFA, Head of International Fixed Income
Andrew Keirle, Portfolio Manager
Kenneth A. Orchard, Portfolio Manager
Quentin S. Fitzsimmons, Portfolio Manager
Ju Yen Tan, Senior Portfolio Manager in the Fixed Income Division
Saurabh Sud, CFA, Portfolio Manager

Why investors should take a closer look at the green bond market.

Each month, our portfolio managers, analysts, and traders conduct an in‑depth review of the full fixed income opportunity set. This article highlights a key theme discussed.

Key Insights

  • Growth of the green bond market expected to continue in 2020, led by sovereigns.
  • Germany’s willingness to issue green bonds is likely to act as a reference point for other issuers.
  • There is an opportunity to start integrating green bonds into fixed income portfolios.

In our latest policy week meetings, we discussed the dynamics and trends of green bonds—one of the hottest trends in fixed income. One topic covered was how our portfolio managers are incorporating green bonds into their fixed income portfolios independently from the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards that are already in place across strategies.

Since the issuance of the first green bond just over a decade ago, the market has gone from strength to strength. Last year, a record USD 255 billion of bonds were sold for the purpose of financing environmentally friendly projects and activities. That’s an increase of more than 45% from the previous year and more than three times the amount issued in 2016. “The environment has become a critical issue driving rapid growth in green bond issuance,” said Quentin Fitzsimmons, a portfolio manager and member of the global fixed income investment team. “The market’s strong momentum looks set to continue as more and more companies and countries step up their efforts to turn greener.”

Several countries are planning to sell green bonds for the first time this year, including Italy and Sweden. More may follow in the future if governments are allowed increased flexibility in their fiscal and budget rules when borrowing to finance for green and environmentally friendly activities. “As many major central banks seem to have exhausted their ability to stimulate growth through monetary easing, developed market countries will likely embark on new fiscal easing—and it’s possible that green bond issuance is part of this,” said Mr. Fitzsimmons.

Green Bond Market Has Grown Steadily Since 2014
(Fig. 1) Total market value of green bonds

As of December 31, 2019.
Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited (see Additional Disclosure).

Credibility Improving, But More Progress Needed

Any increase in green bond issuance would need to be met by investor demand. However, despite great strides made in the market, certain issues are still holding back the mainstream investors from participating. These include a lack of globally accepted standards and the lack of transparency around how the proceeds raised from a green bond sale will be used, particularly how it will be refinanced or paid back in the future. “A clearer explanation of the way the financing is used over time is needed to improve credibility around green bonds,” said Mr. Fitzsimmons.

Another development that could strengthen the market is the German government’s plans to issue green bonds across a range of maturity profiles. Mr. Fitzsimmons said, “A comprehensive German green bond yield curve could potentially be a game changer for Europe as it could serve as a reference point for other sovereigns and corporate issues denominated in euros.”

Not all governments are on the same page when it comes to selling green bonds, however. The UK debt management office, for example, has expressed concerns about the costs of building a liquid government yield curve of green bonds.

Opening Quote The market’s strong momentum looks set to continue as more and more companies and countries step up their efforts to turn greener. Closing Quote
— Quentin Fitzsimmons, Portfolio Manager

Better Liquidity Provides Opportunities for Investing in Green Bonds

Despite spectacular growth, the green bond market remains small in comparison with the overall size of the bond market, although its share is growing. One of the factors holding it back has been a lack of liquidity, but the investment team believes there are signs of improvement on this front. “The boom in green bond issuance is helping to increase their liquidity profile, which, in turn, should provide opportunities for portfolio investing,” said Mr. Fitzsimmons.

In a further positive sign, liquidity in the secondary market has picked up in the past year thanks to jumbo deals from France and the establishment of liquid “green” benchmarks in countries like Ireland. Against this backdrop, we believe it may be the right time to possibly start integrating a layer of green bonds into fixed income portfolios. “In the event we can identify a green bond with the same valuation characteristics as a similar equivalent conventional bond, it is likely to be considered as a preferred selection in some of our portfolios,” Mr. Fitzsimmons said.

Turning attention to the corporate sector, the team noted that green bonds issued in this market could become more attractive than conventional corporate bonds. “Some corporations have a vested interest in enhancing their green credentials as it will help diversify their revenue stream and ultimately improve their ESG scoring with investors,” said Mr. Fitzsimmons.

Opening Quote The boom in green bond issuance is helping to increase their liquidity profile, which, in turn, should provide opportunities for portfolio investing. Closing Quote
— Quentin Fitzsimmons, Portfolio Manager

As of December 31, 2019.
Sources: Climate Bond Initiative and T. Rowe Price estimates.

Any specific securities identified and described are for informational purposes only and do not represent recommendations.


Additional Disclosure

Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). BARCLAYS® is a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, “Barclays”), used under license. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors, including Barclays, own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.


Important Information

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request. It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

Canada—Issued in Canada by T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc.’s investment management services are only available to Accredited Investors as defined under National Instrument 45-106. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. enters into written delegation agreements with affiliates to provide investment management services.

© 2020 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the bighorn sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks
or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

202003-1117507