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Market Events

CIO Perspectives: Weathering Market Volatility

Justin Thomson, Head of International Equity
Mark J. Vaselkiv, Chief Investment Officer, Fixed Income
Kurt A. Umbarger, Portfolio Specialist within the International Equity Division of T. Rowe Price

Weekly Webinar Series

Recorded on March 27, 2020

China Rebound

Thomson
 

  • China’s industrial production is rebounding faster than expected.
  • Q1 GDP in China could decline 7% to 13% but should increase 5% to 9% over the balance of this year. That would mean 2020 GDP would be slightly positive.
  • China is using its version of monetary policy, including easing reserve requirements among financial institutions, and implementing limited fiscal policy measures, to avoid mass unemployment.

State of Fixed Income Markets

Vaselkiv
 

  • Trading activity across all fixed income markets is improving. The Fed is purchasing a significant amount of Treasuries. That’s important in unlocking fixed income markets.
  • Primary markets are reopening, particularly in investment grade. The week of March 23–27 saw U.S.$99 billion of new corporate issuance, a one-week record, bringing 2020 issuance to U.S.$400 billion.
  • The best-quality companies are shoring up their balance sheets and investors are taking advantage of more attractive pricing for BBB and A-rated securities.

Fiscal and Monetary Response

Thomson
 

  • A global recession is almost a certainty, but we don’t know how deep or protracted it might be.
  • The size of the measures of global fiscal response could be 2.6% of global GDP, compared with 1.7% during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008–09.

Are We Nearing a Bottom and What are the Opportunities?

Vaselkiv

  • We will get a good sense in April from Q1 earnings guidance and economic data.
  • Recent better performance doesn’t suggest markets are repaired. Recoveries can take years.
  • Valuations in high yield and floating rate are compelling and these asset classes are much higher quality than they were going into the GFC.

Thomson
 

  • We recommend upgrading quality. There’s no need to take balance sheet risk as many great companies have sold off.
  • We need to stay focused on fundamentals and remain invested because when the recovery comes, it is likely to come very sharply.

Important Information

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of March 27, 2020 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

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202003-1128603