Download

Audience for the document: Share Class: Language of the document:

Download

Share Class: Language of the document:

Change Details

If you need to change your email address please contact us.
Subscriptions
OK
You are ready to start subscribing.
Get started by going to our products or insights section to follow what you're interested in.

Products Insights

GIPS® Information

T. Rowe Price ("TRP") claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. T. Rowe Price has been independently verified for the twenty four-year period ended June 30, 2020, by KPMG LLP. The verification report is available upon request. A firm that claims compliance with the GIPS standards must establish policies and procedures for complying with all the applicable requirements of the GIPS standards. Verification provides assurance on whether the firm’s policies and procedures related to composite and pooled fund maintenance, as well as the calculation, presentation, and distribution of performance, have been designed in compliance with the GIPS standards and have been implemented on a firm-wide basis. Verification does not provide assurance on the accuracy of any specific performance report.

TRP is a U.S. investment management firm with various investment advisers registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority, and other regulatory bodies in various countries and holds itself out as such to potential clients for GIPS purposes. TRP further defines itself under GIPS as a discretionary investment manager providing services primarily to institutional clients with regard to various mandates, which include U.S, international, and global strategies but excluding the services of the Private Asset Management group.

A complete list and description of all of the Firm's composites and/or a presentation that adheres to the GIPS® standards are available upon request. Additional information regarding the firm's policies and procedures for calculating and reporting performance results is available upon request

Other Literature

You have successfully subscribed.

Notify me by email when
regular data and commentary is available
exceptional commentary is available
new articles become available

Thank you for your continued interest

Please enter valid search characters

Investment Insights

Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints

T. Rowe Price

Portfolio Positioning

As of 30 September 2019

Uneasy Equilibrium

  • We remain broadly neutral from a risk standpoint with a modest underweight to equities and are finding pockets of opportunity to add yield in lieu of capital appreciation.
  • Within developed markets outside the U.S., we reduced our exposure to growth stocks in favor of value as relative valuations are stretched, considering supportive central bank policy responses.
  • Within fixed income we added to floating rate loans as they offer attractive yields with reasonable valuations.

Market Themes

As of 30 September 2019

Easy money, again

The dovish shift of monetary policy this year has been dramatic as negative trade headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on growth. So far, 21 central banks have moved into outright easing mode, which should help stabilize global growth and allay fears of an impending recession. However, monetary policy is at an unusual starting point. After a decade of unprecedented monetary stimulus around the world, rates are already at historically low levels and inflation remains stubbornly low, raising questions on its effectiveness. While policymakers continue to stress that they are ready to do more, policy has been restrained and largely reactive to date, allowing trade negotiations to drive the macro outlook.

Central Bank Action Comparison

As of 30 September 2019

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Analysis based on the 30 largest IMF countries based on GDP (nominal).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

Head fake?

In late August/early September, equity markets experienced a sharp rotation out of momentum-driven growth stocks into more cyclically oriented value names. This was a significant reversal in leadership as cyclical companies had long been shunned by investors amid weak global growth, while defensive growth stocks continued to lead. Bond markets similarly showed signs of inflection as interest rates bucked their downward trend, reversing a large part of August’s steep decline. Was this an unwind of extended growth equity valuations and overly bearish sentiment that sent rates to record lows? Or does the market truly believe that economic growth will pick up enough to sustain earnings and price momentum of cyclical sectors?

MSCI ACWI Index Growth Less Value

31 December 2018 to 30 September 2019

Shading represents inflection point on the chart. Source: Financial data and analytics provider FactSet. Copyright 2019 FactSet. All Rights Reserved. Based on daily returns.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

Achtung!

While sentiment within eurozone services has remained resilient, confidence within manufacturing dropped to its worst level in nearly seven years. The decline, largely driven by weakness in Germany, the region’s largest economy, has raised fears that Europe may be headed for a recession. Uncertainty surrounding Brexit, trade disputes, and issues in the auto industry have all weighed on growth within the region. Monetary policymakers have already stepped back in to support growth, and after years of austerity, an increasing number of countries are expected to provide fiscal stimulus. The question remains whether policymakers can deliver enough support to avert a third euro-area recession in the past decade.

Germany PMI

30 September 2016 to 30 September 2019

Source: Markit Economics Limited. Please see additional disclosures on the final page.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION.

Regional Backdrop

As of 30 September 2019

United States

Positives
  • Fed easing, low inflation
  • Healthy consumer spending, strong employment, and improving wages
  • Low interest rates driving a rebound in housing
  • Pause in trade war escalation
  • Greater share of secularly advantaged companies (e.g., cloud computing, internet retail) than rest of the world
     
Negatives
  • Political uncertainty
  • Modest economic growth with fading fiscal stimulus
  • Muted near-term earnings expectations
  • Weak capex spending and corporate confidence
  • Late-cycle concerns: tight labor market, rising wages, and corporate margins under pressure
  • Elevated corporate and government debt levels

Europe

Positives
  • Monetary policy remains very accommodative
  • Indirect beneficiary of China stimulus
  • Services sector of the economy resilient
  • Dividend yields remain strong
Negatives
  • Economic growth is muted, with notable weakness in the manufacturing sector
  • Limited scope for ECB to stimulate further
  • Export weakness, vulnerable to trade and China growth
  • Banking sector remains challenged
  • Brexit uncertainty weighing on sentiment

Developed Asia/Pacific

Positives
  • Further China stimulus could support regional trade
  • Dovish stance from both the BOJ and RBA
  • Broadly attractive valuations, particularly in Japan
  • Improving corporate governance trends in Japan
Negatives
  • Highly sensitive to global industrial production trends and trade tensions
  • Australia facing slowing economy with weakness in housing
  • Australian earnings facing increased margin pressure

Emerging Markets

Positives
  • Muted (but rising) inflation, more dovish Fed has given central banks flexibility to ease
  • Equity valuations attractive relative to developed markets
  • With growing importance of tech sector, less tied to commodity cycle
  • Beneficiary of China stimulus
Negatives
  • Export-driven economies are highly vulnerable to rising trade tensions
  • Instability in several key markets (Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil) could persist
  • Long-term China growth trajectory remains a headwind
  • China stimulus more measured and domestically focused

Asset Allocation Committee Positioning

As of 30 September 2019

Portfolio Implementation

As of 30 September 2019

Source: T. Rowe Price.
Neutral equity portfolio weights broadly representative of MSCI All Country World Index regional weights; includes allocation to real assets equities. Core global fixed Income allocation broadly representative of Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index regional weights.
Information presented herein is hypothetical in nature and is shown for illustrative, informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action. This material is not intended to forecast or predict future events and does not guarantee future results. These are subject to change without further notice.
Please see “Additional Information” on final page for information about this MSCI information.
Source for Bloomberg Barclays index data: Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Copyright© 2019, Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. Used with permission

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES:
Certain numbers in this report may not equal stated totals due to rounding.

Source: Unless otherwise stated, all market data are sourced from Factset. Financial data and analytics provider FactSet. Copyright 2019 FactSet. All Rights Reserved.

Copyright ©2019, Markit Economics Limited. All rights reserved and all intellectual property rights retained by Markit Economics Limited.

Source for MSCI data: MSCI. MSCI and its affiliates and third party sources and providers (collectively, “MSCI”) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. Historical MSCI data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.

Key Risks – The following risks are materially relevant to the information highlighted in this material:
Even if the asset allocation is exposed to different asset classes in order to diversify the risks, a part of these assets is exposed to specific key risks.
Equity risk – in general, equities involve higher risks than bonds or money market instruments.
Credit risk – a bond or money market security could lose value if the issuer’s financial health deteriorates.
Currency risk – changes in currency exchange rates could reduce investment gains or increase investment losses.
Default risk – the issuers of certain bonds could become unable to make payments on their bonds.
Emerging markets risk – emerging markets are less established than developed markets and therefore involve higher risks.
Foreign investing risk – Investing in foreign countries other than the country of domicile can be riskier due to the adverse effects of currency exchange rates, differences in market structure and liquidity, as well as specific country, regional, and economic developments.
Interest rate risk – when interest rates rise, bond values generally fall. This risk is generally greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment and the higher its credit quality.
Real estate investments risk – real estate and related investments can be hurt by any factor that makes an area or individual property less valuable.
Small and mid-cap risk – stocks of small and mid-size companies can be more volatile than stocks of larger companies.
Style risk – different investment styles typically go in and out of favour depending on market conditions and investor sentiment.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is being furnished for general informational purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, and prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources’ accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.

It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

Australia - Issued in Australia by T. Rowe Price Australia Limited (ABN: 13 620 668 895 and AFSL: 503741), Level 50, Governor Phillip Tower, 1 Farrer Place, Suite 50B, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. For Wholesale Clients only.

Canada - Issued in Canada by T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc.’s investment management services are only available to Accredited Investors as defined under National Instrument 45-106. T. Rowe Price (Canada), Inc. enters into written delegation agreements with affiliates to provide investment management services.

DIFC - Issued in the Dubai International Financial Centre by T. Rowe Price International Ltd. This material is communicated on behalf of T. Rowe Price International Ltd by its representative office which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. For Professional Clients only.

EEA ex-UK - Unless indicated otherwise this material is issued and approved by T. Rowe Price (Luxembourg) Management S.à r.l. 35 Boulevard du Prince Henri L-1724 Luxembourg which is authorised and regulated by the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. For Professional Clients only.

Hong Kong - Issued by T. Rowe Price Hong Kong Limited, 6/F, Chater House, 8 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong. T. Rowe Price Hong Kong Limited is licensed and regulated by the Securities & Futures Commission. For Professional Investors only.

Singapore - Issued in Singapore by T. Rowe Price Singapore Private Ltd., No. 501 Orchard Rd, #10-02 Wheelock Place, Singapore 238880. T. Rowe Price Singapore Private Ltd. is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. For Institutional and Accredited Investors only.

South Africa – T. Rowe Price International Ltd (“TRPIL”) is an authorised financial services provider under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002 (FSP Licence Number 31935), authorised to provide “intermediary services” to South African investors.”

Switzerland - Issued in Switzerland by T. Rowe Price (Switzerland) GmbH, Talstrasse 65, 6th Floor, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland. For Qualified Investors only.

UK - This material is issued and approved by T. Rowe Price International Ltd, 60 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4N 4TZ which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. For Professional Clients only.

© 2019 T. Rowe Price. All rights reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE and the Bighorn Sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks or registered trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

201910-970329