- 2022 Midyear Market Outlook
- Fundamentals Matter
- Theme Two
- 2022-06-14 03:47
A brutal spike in bond yields largely drove global equity losses in the first half of the year. In the second half, stock market performance is likely to depend on the outlook for corporate earnings growth.
After spending most of 2021 in deep negative territory, Page notes, the real, or after‑inflation, 10‑year Treasury yield (as measured by the 10‑year TIPS yield) turned positive at the end of April. Figure 3 (top panel) shows the effect this had on U.S. equity valuations, which fell closer toward the middle of their recent historical range.
Now, Page says, with growth concerns rising, the focus is shifting to the “E” side of the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. “Everybody’s wondering if this will be the next shoe to drop.”
Although earnings momentum sagged in many non‑U.S. markets in the first half, earnings per share (EPS) growth in the U.S. remained surprisingly steady (Figure 3, bottom panel). But Page says he doesn’t believe this strength will last. “I think U.S. earnings are likely to decelerate in the second half, challenged by slowing economic growth,” he predicts.
Supply chain improvements also could impact earnings—but maybe not in a good way, Page says. While moving more products might boost sales and revenues, it also could limit pricing power and eat into profit margins.
The Balance of Equity Risks Is Shifting From Interest Rates to Earnings Growth
(Fig. 3) S&P 500 Index forward P/E vs. 10‑year Treasury real yield and 2022 EPS growth estimates in USD
P/E versus real yields from January 3, 2014, through May 27, 2022. 2022 EPS estimates from January 31, 2020, through May 31, 2022.
Actual outcomes may differ materially from estimates.
YoY = year over year.
Sources: Haver Analytics/U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, MSCI, and T. Rowe Price calculations using data from FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved (see Additional Disclosures).
Sector and Style Leadership
Poor earnings environments historically have tended to favor the growth style, which typically is less threatened by cyclical downturns. But, Thomson says, this time could be different, given the heavy weight the technology sector now carries in the growth universe.
“The pandemic really did pull forward digitization, so we’re going to be lapping some very strong 2021 earnings comparisons in the second half,” Thomson explains. “We’re also seeing some late‑cycle effects that are detrimental to tech, such as skill shortages and salary inflation.”
Consumer‑oriented technology platforms, such as streaming media, also could be exposed to a cyclical slowdown in spending, he adds.
"A shift in market leadership appears to be underway. As we’ve seen from history, these cycles have tended to last a long time."
— Justin Thomson, Head of International Equity and Chief Investment Officer
These factors suggest that the back‑and‑forth style rotations seen since the pandemic recovery have tipped in favor of value. “A shift in market leadership appears to be underway,” Thomson says. “As we’ve seen from history, these cycles have tended to last a long time.”
China Could Offer Opportunities
With the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) China Index down almost 50% from its early 2021 peak as of the end of May, Chinese equity valuations appeared potentially attractive, Thomson suggests. However, Beijing’s “zero COVID” strategy has been a key obstacle to a growth revival.
“China has the capacity to stimulate,” Thomson observes. “But there’s no point in stimulating while locking down. It’s like stepping on the accelerator and the brake at the same time.”
How effectively Chinese policymakers will be able to boost growth in the second half is not yet clear, Thomson says. In addition to the coronavirus, sagging property values and credit defaults also could challenge any stimulus efforts.
That said, Thomson adds, in a world where many central banks are withdrawing liquidity to fight inflation, and governments in many developed countries are running deep fiscal deficits, China at least has scope to focus policy on supporting growth.
Another key factor for Chinese equities in the second half could be the regulatory climate, Thomson says, including Beijing’s treatment of the country’s domestic technology platform companies and its crackdown on foreign depositary receipt listings.
Thomson says he believes regulatory policies are likely to turn more market friendly in the runup to the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress later in the year. “This regulatory cycle has been particularly drawn out and deep,” he says. “But we believe these issues will get better from here.”
Thomson says he’s reluctant to predict a leadership shift to non‑U.S. equities in the second half, given the U.S. market’s extended outperformance over the past decade. However, if the U.S. dollar appreciation seen in the first half subsides, and the technology sector continues to struggle, the relative performance of non‑U.S. equity markets should at least improve, he says.
For illustrative purposes only. This is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.
MSCI and its affiliates and third party sources and providers (collectively, “MSCI”) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI. Historical MSCI data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.
Copyright © 2022, S&P Global Market Intelligence (and its affiliates, as applicable). Reproduction of any information, data or material, including ratings (“Content”) in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the relevant party. Such party, its affiliates and suppliers (“Content Providers”) do not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any Content and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such Content. In no event shall Content Providers be liable for any damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content. A reference to a particular investment or security, a rating or any observation concerning an investment that is part of the Content is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security, does not address the suitability of an investment or security and should not be relied on as investment advice. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact.
Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright © 2022, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation to take any particular investment action.
The views contained herein are those of the authors as of June 2022 and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price associates.
Risks: International investments can be riskier than U.S. investments due to the adverse effects of currency exchange rates, differences in market structure and liquidity, as well as specific country, regional, and economic developments. These risks are generally greater for investments in emerging markets. Small‑cap stocks have generally been more volatile in price than the large‑cap stocks. The value approach to investing carries the risk that the market will not recognize a security’s intrinsic value for a long time or that a stock judged to be undervalued may actually be appropriately priced. Sustainable investing may not succeed in generating a positive environmental and/or social impact. Fixed‑income securities are subject to credit risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and interest‑rate risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. Investments in high‑yield bonds involve greater risk of price volatility, illiquidity, and default than higher‑rated debt securities. In periods of no or low inflation, other types of bonds, such as US Treasury Bonds, may perform better than Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Investments in bank loans may at times become difficult to value and highly illiquid; they are subject to credit risk such as nonpayment of principal or interest, and risks of bankruptcy and insolvency. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. Derivatives may be riskier or more volatile than other types of investments because they are generally more sensitive to changes in market or economic conditions; risks include currency risk, leverage risk, liquidity risk, index risk, pricing risk, and counterparty risk.
This information is not intended to reflect a current or past recommendation concerning investments, investment strategies, or account types, advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The opinions and commentary provided do not take into account the investment objectives or financial situation of any particular investor or class of investor. Please consider your own circumstances before making an investment decision.
Information contained herein is based upon sources we consider to be reliable; we do not, however, guarantee its accuracy.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. All investments are subject to market risk, including the possible loss of principal. Actual future outcomes may differ materially from any estimates and forward-looking statements made. All charts and tables are shown for illustrative purposes only.
T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc.
© 2022 T. Rowe Price. All Rights Reserved. T. ROWE PRICE, INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE, and the Bighorn Sheep design are, collectively and/or apart, trademarks of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.