INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

When the Going gets Tough: The Resilience of EM Corporate Debt

Samy Muaddi , Portfolio Manager

Some investors view emerging markets (EM) in general as risky, and this perception sometimes carries through to EM corporate debt. But the downside experience in this asset class has been remarkably limited.
 

Display 1 shows the losses suffered by different risk assets in falling markets. EM corporate debt has consistently outperformed EM sovereign debt, EM local currency debt and EM equities during bear markets. We think this pattern is likely to repeat in future, because EM corporates are, on average, an investment-grade credit quality asset class, with a moderate duration (i.e. interest-rate exposure) profile.
 

Display 2 shows rolling one-year returns—made up of capital gains/losses and coupon income—for the EM corporate and hard-currency sovereign markets (the return history for corporates starts in 2003).


Except for double digit falls during the 2008 global financial crisis, EM corporate losses have been moderate. Given the attractive yields available—typically in the 5% to 7% range—if investors had continued to hold the bonds, the coupon income alone would have allowed them to recoup the capital loss even if bond prices had remained flat. Historically, however, prices have often tended to recover quite swiftly, rewarding investors who bought the dips. As shown in the chart, drawdowns were typically followed by double-digit recoveries the following year.
 

The volatility of EM corporates has become more muted over time, and this has to do with the rising average credit quality of EM debt. Back in the 1990s, this was primarily a high yield asset class, dominated by countries like Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Russia. Since then, the asset class has transformed. Asia credit has gone from 5% of the market to over 50% of the market. This has deflated the historical volatility of returns.
 

Emerging markets corporate debt, like any other risk asset, goes through patches of volatility. But in the past decade it has offered investors better compensation for risk than any other EM asset class, and market inefficiencies and information gaps have offered frequent opportunities for active managers to outperform the index. For investors looking for higher yield or emerging markets exposure, we believe that EM corporates have a valuable part to play in long-term portfolio allocation.

 

Display 1: EM Corporates Resilient at Times of Turbulence
Performance During Market Sell-offs

Graph: EM Corporates Resilient at Times of Turbulence

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

As of 30 September 2019

EM Local Currency—J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified; EM Sovereign—J.P. Morgan EMBI Global; EM Corporate—J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified; US High Yield—Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield; EM Equity—MSCI Emerging Markets. Returns are in US dollars. Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited, J.P. Morgan, MSCI. See Additional Information.

 

Display 2: Trend Towards Less Volatile Returns
Rolling One-Year EM Returns

Graph: Trend Towards Less Volatile Returns

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Returns in US Dollars. As of 30 September 2019.  EM Sovereign—J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Index; EM Corporate—J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index Broad Diversified. Source: J.P. Morgan. See Additional Information.

 


Additional Information

Bloomberg Index Services Ltd - Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). BARCLAYS® is a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, “Barclays”), used under license. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors, including Barclays, own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.

JP Morgan - Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The index is used with permission.  The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright © 2019, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

MSCI -  MSCI and its affiliates and third party sources and providers (collectively, “MSCI”) makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein.  The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products.  This report is not approved, reviewed, or produced by MSCI.  Historical MSCI data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction.  None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such.

 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.

The material does not constitute a distribution, an offer, an invitation, a personal or general recommendation or solicitation to sell or buy any securities in any jurisdiction or to conduct any particular investment activity. The material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction.

Information and opinions presented have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable and current; however, we cannot guarantee the sources' accuracy or completeness. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. The views contained herein are as of the date noted on the material and are subject to change without notice; these views may differ from those of other T. Rowe Price group companies and/or associates. Under no circumstances should the material, in whole or in part, be copied or redistributed without consent from T. Rowe Price.

The material is not intended for use by persons in jurisdictions which prohibit or restrict the distribution of the material and in certain countries the material is provided upon specific request.  

It is not intended for distribution to retail investors in any jurisdiction.

 

 

201911-1010756

RELATED FUND
SICAV
Class I USD
ISIN LU0596126465
A diversified portfolio of typically 100 to 150 securities in mainly corporate bonds from emerging market issuers. We would expect the bulk of value added to come from security selection, with the rest from sector selection. We employ a long-term investment horizon, combined with low portfolio turnover. View More...
3YR Return
(Annualised)
4.74%
Avg Coupon
5.55%
FACTSHEET
Fund Size
(USD)
$212.6m
Avg Maturity
7.43 yrs
Avg Duration
5.69 yrs